Both excise tax and corporate income taxes have been declining persistently for more than a year. The fact that withheld taxes are one of the few categories increasing reminds us of my old adage, “Employers are always the last to get the news.” Historically, time and again employers have continued hiring for months after both the stock market and economic activity have peaked. The fact that employers are still hiring should not be a reason to feel complacent about the US economy. There is overwhelming evidence of weakness.
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