Actually, The US LOST 1,030 Million Jobs in July (Teachers’ Summer Break)

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Confounded Interest. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.

To better understand the July Jobs report, one has to understand the seasonal adjustments that the Bureau of Labor Statistics employs.

Nonfarm payroll jobs added in July on a seasonally adjusted basis were +255,000 in July. But the raw or NON seasonally adjusted numbers were -1,030,000 jobs. Or 1.03 million jobs lost.


Notice in the above chart that you get big downward dips in the nonfarm payroll numbers in January and July.  And it repeats every year. For January, this is the release of seasonal employment for the holidays. For July, this is the transformation to summertime employment, mostly for teachers. Local government education NSA fell by -1,093,000 in July. Total PRIVATE jobs added amounted to +85,000.

So, the BLS smoothes the data using Seasonal Adjustments since January temporary workers being terminated or teachers not working during the summer is hardly newsworthy or surprising.

Food and drinking services actually fell by -35,000 jobs added. Bartender blues.

The bottom line is that the July jobs report was all about teachers going on summer break and low wage jobs being added. But 2016 saw an unusual seasonal adjustment upwards in the data. Here are the seasonal adjustment factors for 2016.

seasonal adjustment_ugh

But for teachers, its the Summertime Blues (without a pay check).

Wall Street Examiner Disclosure:Lee Adler, The Wall Street Examiner reposts third party content with the permission of the publisher. I am a contractor for Money Map Press, publisher of Money Morning, Sure Money, and other information products. I curate posts here on the basis of whether they represent an interesting and logical point of view, that may or may not agree with my own views. Some of the content includes the original publisher's promotional messages. In some cases I receive promotional consideration on a contingent basis, when paid subscriptions result. The opinions expressed in these reposts are not those of the Wall Street Examiner or Lee Adler, unless authored by me, under my byline. No endorsement of third party content is either expressed or implied by posting the content. Do your own due diligence when considering the offerings of information providers.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.