Foreign central banks and US commercial banks have shown signs of being less interested in picking up their customary share of new Treasury supply in the past two weeks. Only stocks have taken the hit in prices and Treasury prices have benefitted from the flight to safety but if banks and FCBs continue to stay away, that will begin to have an impact on Treasury prices also. When prices both of those markets decline in tandem, it will be a signal that the Last Ponzi Games Standing are closed and the con men have left the building.
Here’s what the supply schedule and the path of demand are likely to lead to in terms of stock and bond market performance over the next few months.
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