The headline, fictional, seasonally adjusted number for initial unemployment claims came in at 287,000, slightly lower than the consensus guesstimate of Wall Street economists of 295,000.
The actual, not seasonally finagled numbers, which the Wall Street captured media ignores, shows claims continuing at all time record levels on the basis of claims per million workers, a condition which has persisted since September 2013 when the number of claims first fell to a record low. The data suggests that the central bank financial engineering/credit bubble has been at a dangerous juncture. The media echo chamber continues to present record lows as positive, rather than the danger sign that it is.
Here are the actual unmanipulated numbers and the data showing why those numbers are so troubling.
According to the Department of Labor, “The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 257,736 in the week ending October 4, an increase of 30,056 (or 13.2 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 30,838 (or 13.5 percent) from the previous week. There were 335,937 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013.”
Actual initial unemployment claims were 23.3% lower than the same week a year ago. The normal range of the annual rate of change the past 3.5 years has mostly fluctuated between approximately -5% and -15%. The current number is at an extreme seen only a handful of times since the bungee rebound of 2010. There are no signs of weakening yet.
The actual week to week change last week was an increase of around 30,000, which is normal for the first week of October. The average of the prior 10 years for that week was an increase of approximately 28,000.
New claims were 1,844 per million workers counted in September nonfarm payrolls. This number is lower than the ratio at the top of both the housing bubble in 2006 and the internet bubble in 1999.
These numbers persisted at extreme levels at the tops of the last two bubbles for a year before the collapses got rolling. The foundations were already beginning to crumble by the time the first anniversary of record readings rolled around. Today’s situation is similar to those. Stocks have dipped this week and are on the cusp of major trend sell signals.
Join the conversation and have a little fun at Capitalstool.com. If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.