Troubling Signs Piling Up- Professional Edition

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Here are a couple of the key bullet points from this report:

• The 10 year Treasury yield surged on Friday, concurrent with the beginning of repayments of the ECB’s LTRO loan program. Some borrowers of those funds used them to buy Treasuries. In order to repay those funds it generally means that they must sell the Treasuries they purchased with the funds. This is a negative for the Treasury market
• With the debt ceiling deal, $63 billion in new Treasury notes that normally would have been auctioned last week, but were withheld, will now be auctioned this week for settlement on January 31. That should add to pressure on the Treasury market. The Fed is still printing more money than new supply will absorb, but it has not scheduled any large MBS settlements concurrent with the new Treasury issuance.
• Withholding tax collections have pulled back sharply from huge year to year gains from accelerating income recognition to 2012 in order to beat the increase in tax rates due on January 1. One week does not a trend make, but the drop is an indication that the economy may be slowing. Next week’s withholding tax data will be an important signpost.

Table of Contents

Treasury Auctions
Week Just Completed
Week Ahead
Treasury Auction Takedowns By Investor Class
Primary Dealer Treasury Holdings
Bond Fund Flows
Bank Holdings of Treasuries
Federal Revenues
Economic Data Schedule
10 Year Treasury Yield
US($) Dolor Index

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