Here’s another story pointing out just how badly the mainstream misread the economic data.
Investment bankers and analysts continue to worry about the U.S. economy.
That said, our favorite economic surprise indicator suggests that this concern could be overblown.
The Citi Economic Surprise Indicator measures the ratio of economic data that beats analyst estimates to the ratio that doesn’t; a negative number for the index reflects data that have missed expectations.
In the last few years, this has served as an important leading indicator for the economy. Minimums and maximums in the graph tend to precede changes in investor sentiment towards financial markets.
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And it looks right now like we’re nearing another optimistic moment