Full time jobs jump most in 6 years. Total jobs gain most in 4 years.

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Employment Chart Page now fully updatedThe post below was posted prior to the complete update. Please bookmark the permanent chart page for future reference.

I have done some preliminary analysis of the jobs data. Seasonal adjustments and focus on total rather than full time jobs are screwing the pooch. June gain of 1.39 million full time jobs (actual NSA) was best since June 2006 and was virtually the same as the previous 10 years average of 1.382 million. Far better than last 3 years from 2009 931,000, 2010 1.05 million, 2011 627,000.

All this crying and gnashing of teeth is bullshit. Huge numbers moved from part time work to full time. Full time jobs were up 2.4% year over year, which is a clear acceleration from May, which had a gain of 1.8%. Total jobs were up 2.2% year to year, versus just 1.9% in May.

Total jobs rose just 475k. But that was still better than last year’s 101k, 2010 385k, and 2009’s 463k.

Full Time Employment Short Term View - Click to enlarge

Full Time Employment Short Term View – Click to enlarge

Media and mainstream conomist reactions are as usual are grossly overdone, and show no real understanding of the data (Floyd Norris who wrote a piece in the Times explaining the issue this morning excepted).

 

Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also provide analysis and charts for David Stockman's Contra Corner which I developed for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs in the past 44 years, including a stint on Wall Street in both analytical and sales capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I worked as a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. My perspective is not of the Ivory Tower. It is from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches of the industries that I analyze and write about today. 

  5 comments for “Full time jobs jump most in 6 years. Total jobs gain most in 4 years.

  1. liltramp2
    July 6, 2012 at 12:42 pm

    If you’re correct, & I don’t doubt that you are, why wouldn’t thd administration be highlighting your numbers?

    • July 6, 2012 at 2:57 pm

      That’s a great question. i was just thinking about that this morning. The problem is that it’s too complicated to explain the difference between the SA data that the whole world reports and analyzes and the actual NSA data. SA is for idiots who can’t draw lines, which is virtually everyone in the mainstream media. The problem with SA is that sometimes, like now, it gives a misleading impression, but it’s what everyone uses. Floyd Norris in the NY Times has been the only mainstream media guy writing about the SA problem.

  2. You Suck
    July 6, 2012 at 4:50 pm

    You are an idiot, you said the numbers would be much higher than 100k and it was 80k. You need to find another job because you suck.

    • July 6, 2012 at 5:34 pm

      OK. So tell the truth. You didn’t read the whole article did you? Or the fact that May was revised up by 23,000.
      Coming from you, I consider being called an idiot an honor. It’s a step up from your level– cretin,

  3. facts
    July 7, 2012 at 6:49 pm

    Total Nonfarm Payrolls have decreased by -1.3 million from December 2008 (134,379K) to June 2012 (133,088); Source: St. Louis Fed
    Full-time jobs based on the Household Survey, have decreased by 2.5 million from 117,039K to 114,573K; Source: Table A.9, BLS
    Parti-time jobs based on the Household Survey, have increased by 1.6 million from 26,3187 to 27,894K; Source: Table A.9, BLS
    Foodstamps recipients have increased by 14.6 million from 31.567 million to 46,187 (as of April 2012); Source: USDA
    Disability recipients have increased by 1.3 million from 7.427 million to 8.733 million; Source: Social Security Administration

    Since you like being wrong and called an idiot, I will help. You are an idiot and permabull.

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