Technical indicators and screening measures were positive again Thursday while the market averages treaded water. There are lots of technical positives, but also some...
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Employment Chart Page now fully updated. The post below was posted prior to the complete update. Please bookmark the permanent chart page for future reference.
I have done some preliminary analysis of the jobs data. Seasonal adjustments and focus on total rather than full time jobs are screwing the pooch. June gain of 1.39 million full time jobs (actual NSA) was best since June 2006 and was virtually the same as the previous 10 years average of 1.382 million. Far better than last 3 years from 2009 931,000, 2010 1.05 million, 2011 627,000.
All this crying and gnashing of teeth is bullshit. Huge numbers moved from part time work to full time. Full time jobs were up 2.4% year over year, which is a clear acceleration from May, which had a gain of 1.8%. Total jobs were up 2.2% year to year, versus just 1.9% in May.
Total jobs rose just 475k. But that was still better than last year’s 101k, 2010 385k, and 2009′s 463k.
Media and mainstream conomist reactions are as usual are grossly overdone, and show no real understanding of the data (Floyd Norris who wrote a piece in the Times explaining the issue this morning excepted).