Federal Government Doing “Just Fine,” But Treasuries Losing Popularity

There are a dozen bullet points in today’s Treasury Update. Here are the first 5.

  • Month to date tax collections for the period ended June 21 were running way ahead of last year, while outlays were flat, suggesting the economy may be picking up steam again just when the universal consensus was that it was slowing.
  • Withholding tax collections have rebounded from a downtick early in the month. The growth trend has resumed.
  • The Treasury’s cash balance has reversed its recent decline. With revenues rising and outlays flat, Treasury supply could be less than expected.
  • Commercial banks continue to cut their holdings of Treasuries. Rather than absorbing new supply they are adding to it.
  • Bond fund inflows have weakened over the past month, and are running at only one quarter of their rate of the past 6 months.

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