As Good As It Gets No More, Treasuries Puke

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Treasury supply was in line with the TBAC forecast in the week just completed, but there are signs in weak tax withholding that suggest possible surprise increases in supply that the market could ill afford at the moment. The Fed met a big Treasury issuance on March 15 with a big settlement of the Fed’s forward MBS purchases, but it wasn’t enough, as the Treasury market crumpled in spite of that help.

The “as good as it gets” demand profile in the Treasury market is beginning to fray around the edges. Yield had a big move up with just a slight reduction in buying from a couple of sectors. That suggests that the trend may have finally reversed. The chart of the 10 year yield seems to concur, but a big test looms as it approaches the 2.40-2.50 area.

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