SPX cash opened weak, falling through the 5 day cycle centerline at 1342, signialing the onset of a down phase in that cycle. The 8 day cycle centerline is at 1338. If that area breaks, the market could trend weaker for the better part of this week. If it holds, then the bulls will still be very much in charge. The initial 2 day cycle projection of 1339 has already been broken. If the 8 day cycle centerline breaks, the target of the move could be the next support lines coming up at about 1333.
Here’s the cash SPX chart (time stamp in lower right corner).
The SP futures (or ES electronic mini S&P) have been trading in a tight range of 1331 to 1337 since opening Sunday evening. For most of the night and pre market they have been locked between the 5 day cycle centerline at 1331 and the 2 day cycle centerline at 1336. The 5 day cycle centerlin is still slightly uptrending while the 2 day cycle centerline is flat. A breakout from either should signal the direction of the next short term move. A couple of 2 day cycle indicators are edging toward buy signals, but in general the indicators are mixed an inconclusive.
Given that key support lines in both the cash and futures charts are holding, the uptrend must still be given the benefit of the doubt. That would change if the 5 day cycle centerline on the futures and the 8 day cycle centerline on the cash are broken with conviction.
Here’s a look at the Spoos 30 minute bar chart (time stamp in upper right corner).
You can follow my real time intraday cycle updates with cycle price targets during the day at The Stool Pigeons Wire at Capitalstool.com.
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