The Worst Housing Indicator in the World – Professional Edition

Purchase mortgage applications remain buried near record lows, a condition that has persisted for 5 months. That means that housing sales data over the next two months will continue to be terrible. And in spite of what you heard from the media, the data reported this week was all negative. Prices were down 1% in October and are down 5.7% since June, and demand is worse than ever.

New data reported this week from the Realtors, home builders, Case Shiller, and the Commerce Department’s survey of new home sales all showed upticks. Three of them were on a seasonally adjusted basis. That is absolutely meaningless because conditions were already near record lows for this time of year from the anti-seasonal collapse in activity over the past several months. It’s hard to go lower when you’re already at historic, rock bottom levels, but lo and behold, when the seasonal hocus pocus is removed, the numbers actually were worse—worse month to month, and much, much worse versus last year at this time.

There will be no housing recovery until household formation begins to grow again, and that will only happen when total employment begins to increase in a sustained way that isn’t tied to some artificial government prop. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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This entry was posted on October 27, 2010 at 6:58 pm and is filed under Housing, Money and The Fed, Professional Edition. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.