The Treasury issued its refunding statement on Monday, followed by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee quarterly report on Tuesday. The statement recognized the reduction in first quarter offerings by $86 billion to $392 billion. This was essentially a recognition of the January reduction that resulted from the Treasury’s excess cash holdings at the end of December. The Treasury confirmed that that excess cash resulted from $90 billion in early TARP repayments, as I surmised in these reports in early January. I also covered the fact that this cash would be, and was, used to pay down Treasury bills, reducing bill offerings through the month on a one time basis. So the reduction in the Treasury funding estimate for the first quarter isn’t news, at least to us.
The actual total reduction in offerings was $115 billion for the month of January. The revised estimate going forward for February and March is $20 billion less than the original TBAC estimate posted in early November. This appears to be based on the assumption of an increase in tax receipts, a mistake the TBAC also made in its earlier estimate. What saved them was the unexpected TARP repayments. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.