A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Monthly Archives: June 2009
Market Update 6/30/09 – Professional Edition
Cycle based stock screening data was mostly weaker on Tuesday. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for...
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As Good As It Gets- Again- Professional Edition Fed Report
Treasury market conditions were as good as it gets this week as the Treasury raised just $4 billion in new money. As expected, that gave a boost to end-of-quarter tape painting on Monday, with a little preemptory selling hitting the tape on Tuesday. The Fed stepped in as a buyer of both Treasuries and...
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Actionable Clues from 1937-1938
I offer a chart (click to enlarge) from the 1937-1938 period that might offer clues as to what to expect going forward.
Evident is a big B to C thrust after the Panic’s first bottom. We may now be on the early right angle at C. This in turn was followed by a...
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Actionable More Fed Toxicity Clues
Another look at Federal Reserve exposure to toxic securities can be gleaned from these charts. First shows Oz’s exposure to mortgage backed securities (MBS) and then agencies. Finally is the current trajectory of serious delinquents at Freddie Mac, a trend closely correlated to the unemployment level. Fed holds $255 billion of these now, mostly...
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Whence Comes The Breakout- Professional Edition
Cycle based stock screening data strengthened across the board Friday, with very strong gains in short term cycle indications. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you...
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Actionable Political Football
It is becoming increasing apparent that Ben Bernanke and the Fed are becoming the political lightning rod for the whole issue of government intervention, too big to fail (TBTF) doctrine and the bailout economy. Given that the evidence will begin to mount that the Fed is holding some serious losses in its portfolio, the...
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Battle For The Ages- Professional Edition Fed Report
There was another large drop in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet this week as both TAF, central bank liquidity swaps, and CPR all declined sharply. The Fed bought a ton of paper again, but it was not enough to prevent contraction of the balance sheet, which has now shrunken by over 10%...
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Short Term Moves Dominate – Professional Edition
Cycle based stock screening data surged on all 9 measures, with particular strength in the short term cycles. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a...
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Fed Fights Balance Sheet Collapse – Professional Edition
The Fed’s H41 report was released this evening. Friday’s report will include a review and analysis of that data. An initial glance at this week’s data shows another large drop in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet as both TAF and central bank liquidity swaps declined sharply. Click here to download complete report...
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Actionable Capture
Another low volume pump rally in celebration of the perceived capture of the Gumnut by financial interests continues today. So far these have set up a pattern of flash events, that in turn evaporate. I would anticipate that this one follow the pattern. It also enforces my warnings of late about trading this market...
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Market Update 6/24/09 – Professional Edition
Cycle based stock screening data was stronger in all but one measure. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click...
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Radio Free Wall Street 6/24/09
Lee Adler and Russ Winter reveal the truth behind the economic news, including durable goods, existing home sales, and the fourth branch of government- Goldman Sacks. Is it time to buy?
The following charts accompany this podcast.
Durable Goods vs. The Market (subscribers)
Existing Home Sales (subscribers)
Not a subscriber? Click here to hear a free preview.
Listen to...
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Actionable ASSumptions
Moody’s has new credit card default numbers out for April, and its index climbed to 10.0%. I do find it somewhat perplexing that the stress tests done at about this same time used 9% as a worst case number. Just worth a mention.
There has been a second hotel bankruptcy this week this...
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Nostalgia: Cramer is calling the market bottom
Jim Cramer is the wisdom of CNBC, I love to citate him again and again.
First link:
Pushing toy stuffed bears through a meat slicer, the screaming, peripatetic CNBC anchor Jim Cramer declared that he “had unbelievable guts to call a bottom,” and said:
“I am indeed sticking my neck out right here, right now, declaring emphatically...
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Which Will It Be- Professional Edition
Some indicators continued to weaken on Tuesday in spite of the holding action after Monday’s drubbing. All signs point to the 6 month cycle and probably the 10-12 month cycle entering down phases. The question now is whether those down phases will be down in absolute terms, as opposed to mere sideways corrections. Click...
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Much Ado About Nothing – Professional Edition
Relatively strong results in the 2 year note auction were ballyhooed in the financial media today, but in reality the performance was simply borrowed from the bill auctions on Monday and earlier Tuesday. Taken as a whole there was no uptick in demand evident. That was the easy part as the market got help...
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Actionable Stress Testing the Gumnut Confidence Game
The next stage of the “crisis” could very well be the need to stress test the Federal Reserve, and the US Treasury who have managed to set up a Gordian Knot of obligations and guarantees. In effect they have inherited a big chunk the fictitious capital (FC) and a good measure of the Old...
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Market Update for Friday 6/19/09 – Professional Edition
4 week cycle indications have been strengthening for 7 trading sessions, and new 6-7 week cycle indications for 4 days, which leads me to think, “If this is the up phase, what’s the down phase going to look like?” Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional...
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Show Me The Frickin Money- Professional Edition
Its balance sheet grew this week as the Fed closed on a large amount of forward purchases of MBS. That and their GSE and Treasury purchases were enough to offset a large decline in alphabet soup. Since mid March, the trend of increasing Fed securities holdings and declining alphabet soup have exactly offset one...
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Actionable More Evidence of the Pump and Dump
Besides the big insider sales and stock sales evident from the Great Pump and Dump rally, comes indications that other big Pig Men have taken advantage of the situation to trade or offload trash in the neighborhood. The foils would most likely have been the Fed, various GSEs, the public, and perhaps under slimy...
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Currency Swaps
This is the follow-up after my post on the role of the dollar as the international reserve currency. I was arguing that the logic of the world trade was pulling the dollar out of United States to facilitate all foreign transactions and that had an adverse effect of forcing the huge trade deficit. I...
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This Could Be The Start of Something Small- Professional Edition
The market’s behavior over the next week or so should send an important signal is to the intermediate and longer term outlook. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I...
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Something’s Gotta Give – Professional Edition
The Fed’s H41 will be posted just after the market close, and we will have a complete review and analysis of that data in tomorrow’s report. Before that though, we have quite an appetizer today with all kinds of fascinating data as this gruesome nightmare continues to unfold pretty much according to the road...
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