Archive for May, 2009

All the last two years I’m writing about Kondratieff wave on the regular basis, and as a former scientist I’m trying to abstract from any particular economy as if K-wave just happens every time and everywhere with equal force. But it simply doesn’t work that way and again, as a former scientist I want...
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In addition to a housing overshoot, the sugar high market is going to have to deal with a commercial real estate financing crisis over the duration of 2009 when $178 billion in maturities come due. This is against the backdrop of a CMBS market that has not put forth even one new issue in...
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The is now increasing evidence that an overshoot is developing in housing, with the main thrust coming in higher end prime mortgages. In February the Government came up with programs to spend $75 billion on incentives for mortgage servicing companies that reduce payments for troubled homeowners. The Treasury Department said the program will...
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The is now increasing evidence that an overshoot is developing in housing, with the main thrust coming in higher end prime mortgages. In February the Government came up with programs to spend $75 billion on incentives for mortgage servicing companies that reduce payments for troubled homeowners. The Treasury Department said the program will...
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Margin data for April was released and showed only a small increase. This suggests to me that the rally (at least in April) was driven more by a combination of too much sidelined money,  and short covering, not releveraging.  This in turn suggests that any correction when it comes may not have the liquidation,...
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Wednesday’s late downturn was dramatic, but didn’t accomplish anything technically. The market is still stuck in that same narrow trading range. Cycles are set up in such a way that the churning could continue for weeks. At the same time, there’s still an upside projection of 1000 on the 6 month cycle. ...
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Lee Adler goes solo this week and why the the Con con is a con, and expounds on the non-existent housing recovery,  the horror show in the Treasury market including data on the crash in Federal tax receipts now under way, and the technical outlook for the stock market. Radio Free Wall Street subscribers...
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The Treasury market got bombed today in what could be turning into a crash. Yields soared in spite of near record levels of demand at today’s auctions. The problem clearly isn’t demand. It’s supply, and that problem will not be going away any time soon. Click here to download complete report in...
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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The market soared on a survey indicating that consumer confidence has rebounded. The conventional wisdom is getting increasingly delusional. It seems obvious that the economy is going to have to start delivering to accommodate this expectation. Presumably this is function of the stock market rally and green shoots talk.  As for me I am...
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The podcast originally intended to be posted Tuesday has been postponed because of last minute scheduling difficulties. We regret the inconvenience!
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The market blasted off from key support levels on Tuesday, preventing the uptrend from breaking down and the 6 month cycle from rolling over. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find...
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Three Treasury auctions saw strong demand. In the case of the 2 year note, the size of the indirect bid could only be characterized as hysterical. In spite of worries that investors and central banks would stop buying Treasuries, the problem, ladies and gentlemen, is not one of demand. Click here to...
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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The S&P lost only a point on Friday, but it so doing it may have made a very big point. Behind that small loss laid the continued topping action of 6 month cycle indicators on an increasing number of sector and stock charts. Click here to download complete report in pdf...
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The correction so far has removed the long overbought status of the market. However, the rally was so one sided and sentiment so strange, that I would have to see a minus 200 reading in the McClellan Oscillator (MO) to even consider recommitting sideline cash to anything. Need a much higher VIX as well....
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Primary Dealers are caught in a long squeeze of their own making. They are holding record positions at the long end of the Treasury yield curve, stuck in a market where all other participants are in the same position and where the Treasury will be offering more supply week in and week out. All...
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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Not all GM bondholders fit the 'evil billionaire' category | HeraldTribune.com | Sarasota Florida | Southwest Florida's Information Leader
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Back in 2007 I was writing that during the Kondratieff Spring, Summer and Autumn Treasury bonds and stocks are trading generally in the same direction, with bonds leading. During the Winter they are trading in opposite direction. At this chart the black line is 10 year bond price and red line is S&P. You can...
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Was that just a warning shot across the bow or did the market just take a direct hit? Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give...
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The more the Fed buys, the more the market offers to sell it because everyone is on the same side of the boat, long and wrong. The Fed is the only buyer in size out there. Unfortunately for the market, the Fed only trades with the Primary Dealers, and they are in desperate shape,...
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“Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain,” – Napoleon Bonaparte.Today the Fed came into the Treasury market with less monetization than anticipated. Dealers were left as bagholders resulting in an 16 BP increase in the 10 year T-Note.  Is the Fed being bipolar, or in...
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In yesterday’s podcast I advanced the notion that the “credit crisis” has indeed abated. The reason has been a heavy reliance on the Government and the Fed for backstops, guarantees and very low cost loans at the expense of the Gente. To me it is unclear exactly what this has restored confidence in?  However,...
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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The market is stuck as two important cycles battle it out in opposing phases. One will gain the upper hand. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I...
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Lee Adler, Russ Winter, and Aaron Krowne discuss the latest financial news, and what it REALLY means. Is it time to go short again? Subscribers only. Enter your login when prompted. Not a subscriber? Click here to listen to a free extended preview.To subscribe and hear this podcast right now, click here! Free sample podcast. Hear...
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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It stands to reason that a good bull trap will linger around just long enough to ensnare plenty of carrion.  That is my rationale for distributing my stock in stages, and generally avoiding short selling. At times I have written about understanding one’s personality and compulsions.  If you are a new reader, this effort...
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