Archive for January, 2009

The market got knocked down yesterday. Short term indicators are beginning to roll over, a 13 week cycle down phase is still in force, and it looks like the 6 month cycle is getting ready to roll over. Not quite the perfect storm yet, but it’s getting close. There may be one more concurrent...
Read more »

The market got crushed by a huge wave of Treasury supply this week. No surprise there. We hypothesized just that last week based on the Treasury calendar. Early in the week I was beginning to doubt the hypothesis, but by Friday it became clear that the law of supply and demand is still the...
Read more »

Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
Read more »

Leverage as measured by margin debt was reduced another $15 billion in December to $186 billion. Since then the market has dropped 10%, which intuitively suggests that deleveraging and death of the hedge fund community continued in January as well. The removal of leverage is market constructive as it lessens the specter of further...
Read more »

What the market gave on Wednesday, it took away on Thursday. It came right up to a key long term downtrend line and was turned back. Does that mean the battle is finished? Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
Read more »

Thursday is information overload day. After the market close, the Fed releases sketchy data on all of the week’s behind the scenes machinations, much of which it formerly published daily when it was using Open Market Operations daily. Now they no longer use OMO at all. Tonight’s data will include the H41 with all...
Read more »

Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
Read more »

excerpt- The conventional wisdom (CW) nowadays holds that even modestly leveraged balanced sheets are bad. For example, James Cramer is pushing this CW line continually now, and I would say late in the day. Note that even as he pans these companies, he admits that the amounts of debt would be no big deal in...
Read more »

The rally today put the market on the verge of a breakthrough of a major downtrend line. Tomorrow should be the fake or break day. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t...
Read more »

Lee Adler and Russ Winter discuss the market’s potential for a further rally, and the idea that housing may be bottoming.  Treasury supply may not be a big problem at the moment, but just wait. Not a subscriber? Click here for a free extended preview of this podcast. Subscribers only. Enter your login when prompted. To...
Read more »

We have set up a temporary message board while our regular home is being moved to a new server. Our webhost is still not able to estimate when the original board will be back on line. I apologize for the outage. Yesterday, we experienced a database overload related to both traffic requests and...
Read more »

Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
Read more »

The market faces a life or death decision over the next couple of days that’s likely to set the tone for the next several months. Since tomorrow is FOMC circus day, I wouldn’t necessarily trust a one day move, but it will depend on what the indicators do. They are positioned here to give...
Read more »

Two irresistible forces met today. The wave of panic buying of Treasuries actually grew, at the same time that supply began to mushroom. The buyers won this battle. Treasuries rallied when it became clear that the auctions had seen strong demand, particularly indirect demand which suggests strong buying by foreign central banks. ...
Read more »

Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
Read more »

Timothy Geithner unloaded on China at what can only be called an odd time.  Over the last couple years I have asked myself many times about the action and behaviors of the big players on the scene.  Currently, I have only one theory about the “leadership” and it is completely and utterly about short...
Read more »

The market decided not to decide again on Monday. It’s not an accident. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s...
Read more »

The Treasury rounded out its schedule for the week the result being that it would present the market a “gift” of $72 billion in new supply. This is the highest level of new weekly supply since October and we know what happened then. Things are only likely to get worse for the next two...
Read more »

Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
Read more »

With new Obama’s proposed stimulus package we should expect the sharp increase in government spending to offset the collapse in the private sector. As usual, the economic community is discussing the ancient question of the spending efficiency and private vs. government sector. We are in the market economy, after all, and nobody wants to...
Read more »

The market’s action of the past few days is creating evidence of the possible emergence of an 8-9 week cycle. This is a relatively common phenomenon that occurs when the 10-13 week and 6-7 week cycles merge. Monday will be a pivotal day in determining whether this process is again under way. In this...
Read more »

<SACRAMENTO> Pink slips are flying and educators are crying, but with the California economy in free-fall, the best deal the state was willing to offer will cut “only” 20,000 teachers this year with another 30,000 to be shown the door in 2010.
Read more »

The Fed released its H41 balance sheet report, money supply, commercial paper, and primary dealer data on Thursday and the MBAA released its mortgage applications data. The Fed shrunk its balance sheet for the 5th week in a row in spite of big increases in TAF and CPR. Meanwhile, FCBs continued to binge...
Read more »

The markets look set to test and possibly penetrate the December lows.  It will do so with a relatively over sold McClellan Oscillator (MO) even based on yesterday’s action. A big drop here will push the MO back into the panicky range again, and thus set up severely oversold conditions. Should that happen we...
Read more »

Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
Read more »

Thursday’s decline resulted in continuing indications of an ebbing of the 6 month cycle tide while the 13 week cycle down phase edged toward a point of no return. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within...
Read more »

The Fed announced that it bought more MBS this week but the amount of new MBS purchases actually settled was infinitesimal based on tonight’s H41. It also bought $3 billion in GSE paper. These purchases were offset by the retirement of $20 billion in MBS backed term repos. The Treasury announced 13 and 26...
Read more »

Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
Read more »

Yesterday’s recovery, while impressive, did not leave us with clear buy signals. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that...
Read more »

The McClellan Oscillator hit an oversold reading at -153 on Tuesday, which was enough to engender a market recovery bounce on Wednesday. As discussed previously and also in this week’s podcast, there are layers of overhead resistance on almost all charts. © Russ...
Read more »