A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Monthly Archives: January 2009
Down For The Count? Professional Edition
The market got knocked down yesterday. Short term indicators are beginning to roll over, a 13 week cycle down phase is still in force, and it looks like the 6 month cycle is getting ready to roll over. Not quite the perfect storm yet, but it’s getting close. There may be one more concurrent...
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Verging On Collapse – Professional Edition Fed Report
The market got crushed by a huge wave of Treasury supply this week. No surprise there. We hypothesized just that last week based on the Treasury calendar. Early in the week I was beginning to doubt the hypothesis, but by Friday it became clear that the law of supply and demand is still the...
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Actionable- Margin Debt
Leverage as measured by margin debt was reduced another $15 billion in December to $186 billion. Since then the market has dropped 10%, which intuitively suggests that deleveraging and death of the hedge fund community continued in January as well. The removal of leverage is market constructive as it lessens the specter of further...
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The Market Gives, and Takes Back – Professional Edition
What the market gave on Wednesday, it took away on Thursday. It came right up to a key long term downtrend line and was turned back. Does that mean the battle is finished? Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days....
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Actionable: The Conventional Wisdom Du Jour
excerpt-
The conventional wisdom (CW) nowadays holds that even modestly leveraged balanced sheets are bad. For example, James Cramer is pushing this CW line continually now, and I would say late in the day. Note that even as he pans these companies, he admits that the amounts of debt would be no big deal in...
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Fake or Break – Professional Edition
The rally today put the market on the verge of a breakthrough of a major downtrend line. Tomorrow should be the fake or break day. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the...
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Radio Free Wall Street 1/28/09
Lee Adler and Russ Winter discuss the market’s potential for a further rally, and the idea that housing may be bottoming. Treasury supply may not be a big problem at the moment, but just wait. Not a subscriber? Click here for a free extended preview of this podcast.
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Life or Death Day for Market- Professional Edition
The market faces a life or death decision over the next couple of days that’s likely to set the tone for the next several months. Since tomorrow is FOMC circus day, I wouldn’t necessarily trust a one day move, but it will depend on what the indicators do. They are positioned here to give...
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Panic Demand Wins Another Round – Professional Edition
Two irresistible forces met today. The wave of panic buying of Treasuries actually grew, at the same time that supply began to mushroom. The buyers won this battle. Treasuries rallied when it became clear that the auctions had seen strong demand, particularly indirect demand which suggests strong buying by foreign central banks. Click here...
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A Test of Treasuries- Damn the Consequences
Timothy Geithner unloaded on China at what can only be called an odd time. Over the last couple years I have asked myself many times about the action and behaviors of the big players on the scene. Currently, I have only one theory about the “leadership” and it is completely and utterly about short...
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Undeciding to Decide- Professional Edition
The market decided not to decide again on Monday. It’s not an accident. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple....
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Treasury Gifting – Professional Edition
The Treasury rounded out its schedule for the week the result being that it would present the market a “gift” of $72 billion in new supply. This is the highest level of new weekly supply since October and we know what happened then. Things are only likely to get worse for the next two...
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Walls and Bridges
With new Obama’s proposed stimulus package we should expect the sharp increase in government spending to offset the collapse in the private sector. As usual, the economic community is discussing the ancient question of the spending efficiency and private vs. government sector. We are in the market economy, after all, and nobody wants to...
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As The Worm Turns- Professional Edition
The market’s action of the past few days is creating evidence of the possible emergence of an 8-9 week cycle. This is a relatively common phenomenon that occurs when the 10-13 week and 6-7 week cycles merge. Monday will be a pivotal day in determining whether this process is again under way. In this...
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The Final Backstop- None- Professional Edition
The Fed released its H41 balance sheet report, money supply, commercial paper, and primary dealer data on Thursday and the MBAA released its mortgage applications data. The Fed shrunk its balance sheet for the 5th week in a row in spite of big increases in TAF and CPR. Meanwhile, FCBs continued to binge on...
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Thinking About Execution
The markets look set to test and possibly penetrate the December lows. It will do so with a relatively over sold McClellan Oscillator (MO) even based on yesterday’s action. A big drop here will push the MO back into the panicky range again, and thus set up severely oversold conditions. Should that happen we...
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Swimming Against The Tide – Professional Edition
Thursday’s decline resulted in continuing indications of an ebbing of the 6 month cycle tide while the 13 week cycle down phase edged toward a point of no return. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time,...
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Treasury Slam On the Way – Professional Edition
The Fed announced that it bought more MBS this week but the amount of new MBS purchases actually settled was infinitesimal based on tonight’s H41. It also bought $3 billion in GSE paper. These purchases were offset by the retirement of $20 billion in MBS backed term repos. The Treasury announced 13 and 26...
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Whipsawed! Professional Edition
Yesterday’s recovery, while impressive, did not leave us with clear buy signals. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click...
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Actionable- On the Range?
The McClellan Oscillator hit an oversold reading at -153 on Tuesday, which was enough to engender a market recovery bounce on Wednesday. As discussed previously and also in this week’s podcast, there are layers of overhead resistance on almost all charts.
© Russ...
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Professional Edition Publication Note
The Market Update, normally published in the evening, will be published Thursday morning before the NY open. Thanks for your patience.
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