A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Monthly Archives: December 2008
Interesting Times Next Week – Professional Edition Fed Report
The Treasury calendar will be enormous next week, including the usual 4, 13, and 26 week bills plus 3 and 10 year notes and a 10 year TIPS issue. We won’t know the total amounts until the 4 week bills and the notes are announced on Monday. The Treasury also faces expirations of a...
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A Long Year – Professional Edition
The market has come to an important fulcrum here at year end. There are signs of strengthening in the 6 month cycle. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I...
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Market Update Publication Note – Professional Edition
Due to the late posting of tonight’s extended Fed Report, the market update normally posted in the evening will be posted tomorrow before the NY open. I regret the delay! The market update will not be posted tomorrow evening New Years Eve, or Thursday, January 1, New Years Day. The next posting will be...
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I Kid You Not – Professional Edition Fed Report
Today’s report examines the latest Fed balance sheet data and surprise, surprise, the Fed had a little shrinkage problem this week. The cuts were particularly large in those programs that most directly impact the markets. If this were to continue, the market would take another hit. For the Fed to contract its balance sheet...
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Treasuries: The Last Great Bubble
New podcast with Lee Adler and myself is available. We get into the Treasury Bubble and Dollar question. Reminder that the first ten minutes of these casts are gratis.
My feeling is that the bailout model of political economy has now all but guaranteed substantial and scandalous losses for the Fed and the Treasury’s account...
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Playing Out the String – Professional Edition
The market continues to tread water, with conflicting and inconclusive directional signals. The 6 month cycle remains in a sideways up phase, which allows for an upside surprise, and the 13 week cycle indications have yet to roll over. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional...
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Treasury Resumes SFP CMBs – Professional Edition Fed Report
The Treasury announced that it would sell $35 billion in CMBs this week to replace $30 billion in expiring CMBs issued under the Supplementary Financing Program that supports the Fed’s bailouts. The $5 billion in new money was offset by a reduction in the size of the 4 week bill. On the week there...
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Radio Free Wall Street 12/29/2008
Lee Adler and Russ Winter discuss the markets and a strategy for profiting from bonds. Not a subscriber? Click here for a free extended preview of this podcast.
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Signs of Housing Bottom True or False? Professional Edition
In this 2 part review of the housing market we look at the recent signs of improvement in the market and answer the question of whether it represents the bottom. Click here to download part 1 of the report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days....
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Insider’s View of Silly Con Valley
Here’s a great post from Capitalstool.com’s Stool Pigeons Wire by MDPorter in response to a comment by poster Shorty. QUOTE (shorty @ Dec 27 2008, 09:30 PM) * I think it’s over for Silicon Valley. A few operations will be shipped to India. The rest will steadily decay into a rustbelt-type environment racked by...
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Actionable-The Bailout Model of Political Economy
I’ve seen enough total nonsense, and am now recommending a short of the long dated Treasury via a long position in-
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Happy Holidays
Just a reminder that there will be no podcast today, December 24. We will return Monday, December 29. Until then, have a safe and joyous holiday!
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Happy Holidays
The Wall Street Examiner will be taking a few days off to spend with family over the Christmas holiday. There will be no postings from December 24 through December 29. Regular reports will be posted December 29 and 30. There will be no postings December 31 or January 1. A regular posting schedule will...
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Santa Leaves Lump of Coal for The Street – Professional Edition
The market didn’t give us much to go on today. The weakness in the averages wasn’t sufficient to trigger clear sell signals, although time counts and cycle screening data suggest that the 13 week cycle should be rolling over here. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the...
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Fed and Treasury Wind Down – Professional Edition Fed Report
The Fed bought another slice of GSE paper today to add to the $13.4 billion it has consumed over the past 3 weeks. The total amount taken was $1.6 billion, bringing the total to $15 billion. The Fed announced that it would do no further purchases through year end. Let’s keep this in perspective....
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Debt Balance Markers
3Q marked a solid paydown of mortgage and home equity lines of credit on the order of $64.1 billion. Most mortgages are amortized over time, and if cash out refis and new HELOC credit lines are nearly impossible to obtain for most, then this trend should continue. In fact it could increase. One aspect...
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Disabusing Popular Assumptions
There are a couple of assumptions floating around in certain quarters that I’d like to disabuse. One is that based on its recent statements and actions, the Fed is reflating. Another is that it will be successful, in fact too successful, resulting in high inflation. Another is that foreign central banks will be around...
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Market In For More Slop – Professional Edition
Market indicators are beset with cross currents. Until they get in gear, the market is likely to remain sloppy, trending mostly sideways. Time counts suggest, however, that the 13 week cycle is due to roll over imminently. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk...
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Fed Actions Make Madoff Look Saintly – Professional Edition
The Treasury is throwing $10 billion in new supply on the market this week, sucking cash out of other sectors. $10 billion is not a lot by recent standards, especially including this October when they were pounding the market with $100 to $200 billion per week in new supply. We know what that caused...
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Game Over? Stay Tuned – Professional Edition
The cycle screen aggregate differential indicator hit by far the highest ever reading at +2440 on Wednesday 11/26. Big upmoves like that in the past have been consistent with cyclic breadth momentum thrusts that normally accompany an intermediate upturn. That is a prime reason for being hesitant about expecting a big drop from here....
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Widows, Orphans Hold Bag Again- Professional Edition Fed Report
The Fed did another outright purchase of Agency debt on Friday. Its little ploy to get foreign central banks (FCBs) and Primary Dealers off the hook, while leaving widows and orphans as the bagholders yet again, is working. Both PDs and FCBs continued dumping Agency paper at a breakneck pace this week, while the...
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Range of Indecision Narrows – Professional Edition
There were no definitive signals yesterday. The market remains precariously perched between an extension of the recent rally and a failure that could lead to another devastating decline. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you...
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Actionable- The Orphaned Money Question
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