Archive for November, 2008

The H3 data from the Fed gives some startling evidence as to the degree of financial deleveraging that occurred during the Panic.  Without doubt banks and lenders must have sold a boatload of securities at what were probably distressed prices during this period. To the Fed? To vultures?  And for what purpose? to prepare...
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The market appears to be nearing what should be a short term pullback. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s...
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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This post was by Trader Joe on yesterday’s Stool Pigeons Wire. One of the consequences of the “CRASH” in the high-yield debt market is that corporate treasurers have finally woken up and realized that they can tender for their debt from desperate institutional holders for pennies on the dollar. This can provide a TREMENDOUS BENEFIT for...
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As one might expect there have been some structural changes in the underpinning of the markets. The indications are that an historic number of participants have paniced, have economic collapse or severe depression expectations, and are sitting in cash. First most of the analysts have capitulated. This ties in with the possibility that the 4th...
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The bulls get the turkey now, and its beginning to look like they will get it for Christmas too. Seems like every day in this market we get the improbable, even the unthinkable to occur. Today it was more record upside readings in our cycle indicators. Click here to download complete report...
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In part 2 of our housing market review, demand indicators show no real sign of improvement. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a...
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The Mortgage Applications index dropped to its lowest point in 8 years at the end of October. As of the week ended November 21 it had barely budged off that level. The bailout of Fannie and Freddie last summer had the opposite effect of what was hoped for, as spreads on Fannie and Freddie...
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There were no Treasury auctions today. The Treasury announced next week’s 13 and 26 week bill auctions today, a day earlier than usual due to the holiday. Both will be for $28 billion. Both are $1 billion more than the TBAC estimate made on October 31. Both are $1 billion more than the amounts...
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Just as a reminder, there will be no podcast this week. We’ll return next Wednesday. To all of our US listeners, have a safe and happy Thanksgiving.
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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On Tuesday I wrote a defense of the Citigroup deal which you can read here. I feel that under the circumstances this was a shrewd arrangement. Unfortunately it now appears that they could not let well enough alone. It seems that with little fanfare the US central bank in your face announced a large scale...
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The evidence of an incipient 6 month and 10-12 month cycle turn is growing. But long term indicators do not support the idea of a major bottom. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you...
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Today I got sick to my stomach when the Fed announced two more alphabet soup du jour programs. One program will involve the direct purchase of GSE and MBS paper by the Fed. that’s another $600 billion that the Fed will add to its books. This action was necessitated by the ending of the...
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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I am disappointed with the commentary on the Government’s Citigroup deal.  It strikes me that a new cottage industry of critics has arrived, whose purpose is to howl and scream regardless of the facts and details.  This run down is typical. The attention to the facts here is sloppy at best.  It looks like...
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The title doesn’t have much to do with tonight’s market update, but it’s just that I keep thinking who IS going to bail US out now that the US government has embarked down the slippery slope of taking all the bad debt in the world on to itself and on to the backs of...
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When the Fed, Treasury, and FDIC issued a statement yesterday on the Citigroup bailout, I didn’t know whether to laugh, cry, or… The potential enormity of this bailout raises the question of whether the Fed will continue to be able to recirculate the world’s existing cash, or will need to monetize. We don’t have...
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The 3 day cycle projection on GLD as of 8:25 AM NY time was around 82. The 3 day cycle projection on GDX of 24.50 had already been reached. Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing...
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Following on other points in the Roubini matrix as discussed last Friday, in point 4 Roubini suggests that interest on mortgages and consumer loans are pushing higher. In fact, the resets on many adjustable rate mortgages are going lower.  40% of all mortgages are based on Treasury rates, and cost of funds indexes. The...
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The indicators were not impressed with Friday’s rally. All intermediate indicators continue to point lower. Only 4 week cycle indicators have turned up. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information...
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Today the Downey Financial is finally gone. Long live Jim Cramer! Click to zoom:
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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Nouriel Roubini wrote a piece about the consumer capitulating that offers a good matrix for discussion.  I have some different takes on this however. There are alot of points here, so I will come back over the next several days and tackle them, hitting a few today. For now, I will tackle one aspect of...
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You can read here about major dislocations at the credit markets: I have done this for nearly 30 years. I have never witnessed this before I would not call it “flight to quality” or “panic” - it more looks like widespread margin liquidation, where long positions are dumped into collapsing market and shorts are covered into...
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The technical warning signs that we saw developing earlier this week came to fruition today as the S&P 500 smashed the October 2002 low. As bad as this was, most indicators suggest that it’s going to get worse, a lot worse, before this is over. Click here to download complete report in...
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The Fed released its H41 balance sheet report tonight, and there was nothing new. It’s all bad. The Fed has engaged the market in a circle jerk, sucking funds in from the banking system by paying interest on reserves only to lend those funds out to the system via the alphabet soup programs. But...
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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This historic bear market looks like it’s about to go from bad, to worse, to worst. The market finally slid through key support levels today apparently heading for much lower lows. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If,...
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Lee Adler, Russ Winter, and Aaron Krowne discuss the the latest news developments, Russ’s view that the current market is like the Panic of 1907 and that it’s time to buy the future winners, and Lee’s argument that it’s wrong to be long. It’s a heated discussion, and it’s up to you to choose...
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