A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Monthly Archives: October 2008
All Bulled Up, No Place To Go – Professional Edition
The 13 week cycle is clearly in an up phase that ideally should last from 1 to 4 weeks. Now there are increasing signs that a 6 month cycle low may also have formed. But before we get all bulled up, let’s keep in mind that there’s no evidence that the major trend is...
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The Circular Pipe – Professional Edition Fed Report
The Fed pumped a net of $145 billion in cash into the market this week through its alphabet soup of programs and conduits. Surprise, surprise, stock prices jumped. But Treasuries groaned. Was the Fed actually creating money and credit, i.e. monetizing? Or was it simply acting as a circular pipe? You’ve probably already guessed...
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Publication Note – Professional Edition
Due to administrative issues relating to our server move and the move of the Bears Chat message board to us, the Fed report will be posted later this evening, and the market update, normally posted in the evening will be delayed until tomorrow morning. I regret the inconvenience. I expect to gradually return to...
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Bears Chat Moves to the Wall Street Examiner
Last night, at about the moment my beloved Phillies won the World Series, The Wall Street Examiner also experienced a big thrill when the folks at Prudenbear.com flipped the switch and we here at the Wall Street Examiner took over hosting the Bears Chat message board that had been at Prudentbear.com for many years.
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Treasury Yields and Dollar Index – Professional Edition
Latest technical conditions and projections for the US Dollar Index and 10 Year Treasury Yield. Click links to download report in pdf format. (WSE Pro subscribers only). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s...
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Ordem e Progresso
New podcast is available, with today’s post being my primary topical discussion.
On the infrastructure and build out front there are now major attempts lead by China and Brazil to conduct very large projects. China just announced a large scale rail and transportation build out with about a quarter trillion plus investment. In addition Asia...
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The Big Tease – Professional Edition
The market gave us a little tease on Wednesday, acting at first as though it wanted to continue the rally and break through key resistance levels. In the end they couldn’t do it but most technical indicators continued to strengthen. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the...
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Fed Cuts But Doesn’t
The Fed Report will return in the Professional Edition tomorrow. Here are just some quick thoughts from today’s actions. I found it interesting that the Fed only cut to 1% since the effective Fed Funds rate has been 0.75 for the past two weeks. Seems the target is just for show now. The Fed...
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Radio Free Wall Street 10/29/2008
Lee Adler, Russ Winter, and Aaron Krowne discuss their interpretation of the current environment, along with strategies and tactics for today’s market. Not a subscriber? Click here for a free extended preview of this podcast.
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Bear Interruptus – Professional Edition
A point I have made before is that extreme illiquidity leads to extreme volatility. The market makers do not have the ability to maintain deep layers of bids or offers. 500 to 1000 point moves on the Dow could become commonplace in this environment. It will be exciting; it will be wild and crazy;...
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Still Panickin’ In Treasuries – Professional Edition Fed Report
The panic into shorter term Treasuries continued at today’s Treasury auctions while the longer end of the Treasury market was showing signs of stress. Agency spreads to Treasuries continued to blow out. That will be a disaster for the housing market. Meanwhile, the Fed again sat on its hands in OMO, just rolling over...
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Bellwethers Update – Professional Edition CORRECTED LINK
The charts in this report show the status of 19 large cap bellwether stocks with prices updated through 10/28/08 at 12 PM. The charts include 13-week and/or 6 month cycle centered moving average projections. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty...
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Faint Light at the End of the Tunnel
There is enormous relief for Joe Sixpack underway. This is a process that will take some time, but its effect will be evident by Spring of 2009. Here is the story.
The average driver goes about 12,000 miles a year at 20 miles per gallon, says Ken Medlock, an Energy Fellow at the Baker Institute...
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Now Or Never – Professional Edition
The market sliced through yet more key support levels on Monday and trend channels angled down even more sharply, if that’s possible. The 13 week cycle up phase that’s overdue is nowhere in sight. Short term cycles appear to be turning down again, which means that as bad as things have been, they may...
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Harbingers of Doom – Professional Edition Fed Report
This week’s Treasury calendar is a little lighter than it has been over the past month, including CMBs and TIPS announced today. Of course, it is only Monday.The Fed’s daily OMO continue to be a non issue. They have just been rolling over $25 billion in reverse repos every day for more than a...
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Observation on the Crack Up Boom Crash
The question should be asked: with the complete annihilation of the last big Bubble (the commodity crack up boom or CUB), what happens now to the ebb and flow of goods and commodities. Are basic goods no longer going to be meaningfully produced? A little review of what transpired with the CUB crash is...
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Server Move and Technical Issues
Yesterday, The Wall Street Examiner and affiliated blogs moved to a new server so that we can better serve our readers and subscribers as our readership grows. As always with server upgrades and moves, some technical issues have arisen as a result. We are aware of the password access issues. We have instituted a...
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Closed End Funds
Today’s Actionable post is here in its entirety.
During our last podcast Lee Adler, Trader Joe, and myself discussed the usability of my ideas for smaller investors. Trader Joe mentioned that he was using deeply discounted closed end funds and option selling strategies, which of course ties into my approach as well. In the call...
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1974 or 1930? Professional Edition
Another day, another loss. This feels a lot like the summer of 1974, only those losses were smaller and the market was further along in the 4 week cycle than this one is. I also think that we have broken the 1929 meme. This decline is more persistent, and seems more like the second...
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Server Upgrade and Service Disruptions
The Wall Street Examiner and affiliated blogs and sites, including Radiofreewallstreet.fm, Winter Watch, Russ Winter’s Actionable, and the Yellow Brick Road will be moving to a new server environment over the weekend that will enable us to better handle our growing base of subscribers and visitors. Unfortunately during this time there is likely to...
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Pushing On A String – Professional Edition Fed Report
Net Fed credit outstanding shrank this week. Taking into account the decline in gross Fed credit and the increase in the Treasury’s Special Funding Program deposits, the differential was $93 billion. So it’s no mystery why the stock market collapsed again. It’s not what the Fed wants, but they’re apparently pushing on a string....
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Take It, It’s Free, Or Discounting the Depression
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Limbo- How Low Can You Go – Professional Edition
Thursday’s late recovery left the market in limbo. Market indicators are extended at record levels on the downside, but there’s little sign of an intermediate upturn. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find...
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Fed Report – Professional Edition
The Fed report will not be posted this evening. The complete weekly roundup will be posted tomorrow. The Fed rolled over the $25 billion in reverse repos. The Treasury announced the usual weekly bill auctions, plus 2 and 5 year notes and a 4 year- 6 month TIPS issue. There were no CMBs announced...
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