Archive for September, 2008

I just want to add a chart to the nice Russ’ post about berserkers.
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Did today’s rebound change anything? The recovery was sufficient to reverse yesterday’s support break, but nothing in the indicators yet suggests that today’s upmove was anything more than a reaction rally. When markets break down they often immediately return to the scene of the crime. Click here to download complete report in...
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The Fed and Treasury Report will not be published today, Tuesday September 30, 2008.The only action taken by the Fed today was the regular weekly rollover of the 1 day forward $20 billion term repo. Regular publication will resume tomorrow. The daily market update will be posted this evening.
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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The question now facing us is whether the market’s mini-crash will now accelerate into a full-blown crash of historic proportions, or have a snapback rally. If we look at 1929 as a template, the crash lasted 5 days beginning with the break of major support on October 23. That would coincide with today. There...
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The well expected and well predicted secular credit cycle unwinding made government boy geniuses to panic. They came with a lousy plan that they found in the books about previous Great Depression and they promised the lousy president that they can fix the stock market before elections. Then they came into lousy Congress with 3...
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The Fed announced a couple of mammoth increases to its existing alphabet soup programs today, increasing the currency swaps with FCBs to $620 billion from $290 billion. It also doubled the TAF to $300 billion, and announced a special series of 2 forward TAF auctions totaling $150 billion to tide the banking system over...
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Latest technical conditions and projections for the US Dollar Index and 10 Year Treasury Yield. Click links to download report in pdf format. (WSE Pro subscribers only). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund....
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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The financial industry is braced for a major shut down of hedge funds. Strangely this is being described as a fearful event, but it is my view that the industry is talking its own book. In the long term I consider this event to be bullish and to be part of the healthy readjustment...
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Just before the 1929 and 1987 market crashes key intermediate indicators appeared to be forming bottoms after several weeks of decline, and actually flashed preliminary buy signals in the process of rallies that lasted 7 or 8 days just before the market crashed. On Thursday and Friday last week, under circumstances of extreme financial...
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This post is just one big chart.
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At Jan 1st I was making my predictions for this year and I wrote about sectors that could bottom this year: Financials. Yes, I’m not kidding. It will be a horrible year for financials but that will be a bottom, at some point. Two more panics like we had in August and I’m buying the...
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There were some revealing assumptions build into the $31 billion in write offs of WaMu’s loan portfolio conducted by JPM. There is hardly any blue sky in this, in fact quite the opposite. © Russ Winter for Winter (Economic & Market) Watch, 2008....
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I finally figured it out. The Fed and Treasury are running a circle jerk which is crowding legitimate commercial borrowers out of the credit market. Much of this has to do with the Fed’s new MMALF, the Money Market Assisted Living Facility for Senior ABCP issues. It’s where ABCP goes to wait to die...
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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The JPM takeout of WAMU is significant and once again illustrates the “Tar Pit Operation”. Here are the details, and indicate (on its face) that no FDIC funds were involved. 1. Carrion is stuck in the Pit. 2. Saber Tooth (Friend of Hankenstein-FOH ) takes the Carrion in a government orchestrated “rescue” or “hand off”. Carrion...
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The uncertainty in the technical picture reflects the uncertainty in Washington and on Wall Street. Even the time that will be required to resolve that uncertainty is uncertain. So how do we sort through that, and what do we look for for resolution? Click here to download complete report in pdf format...
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The Wall Street Bailout plan has rightfully stirred up a populist uprising that may shake this country’s financial establishment to the core.  What is really going on?  The following are my ideas, entirely unproven yet somehow resonant.
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The Treasury announced another gargantuan CMB today, bringing to $198 billion the amount of new supply it has dumped on the market. Thanks to all other credit markets being shut down, so far the Treasury has had little problem selling the paper, but rates rose across the spectrum today. The Fed, meanwhile, did another...
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I am going to take an initial modest position in the high yield bond market, with the idea of averaging down if the opportunity presents. © Lee Adler/The Wall Street Examiner for Winter (Economic & Market) Watch, 2008. | ...
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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I want to play a kids game of connecting the dots on the list about the future of some of the troubled banks. The dots are: GS and MS getting a banking license. I suppose if they planned to buy a bank they don’t need a license, as it will come automatically. You need a...
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I just watched Bush’s little talk to the nation. Typical Bushian scare tactics. From watching the evening news programs I now sense the momentum to getting some kind of deal done is out there, but it clearly won’t look anything like the original Paulson proposal. When and if they get it done, the market...
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The Fed has a problem. Banks that can access the Fed Funds market at all are now sitting on a monster cash hoard that is suppressing the interbank rate to well below the target. So the Fed had to aggressively drain reserves again today, this time with a rarely used reverse repo. Meanwhile the Treasury...
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New Radio Free Wall Street is in the hopper, no surprise about the topic. © Russ Winter for Winter (Economic & Market) Watch, 2008. | Permalink | No comment Add...
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Lee Adler, Russ Winter, and Aaron Krowne discuss the government bailout package along with what to look for in the weeks and months ahead, and discuss strategies for the short, intermediate and long term. Not a subscriber? Click here for a free extended preview of this podcast. Subscribers only. Enter your login when prompted. To subscribe...
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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The evidence is clear that the consumer has already been retrenching throughout all of 2008, not just of late. New data out on the household debt service ratio indicates that as of April, Joe Ultra Light Six (JULS) was looking a little less Ultra-like having reduced his debt service burden from 14.35% to 13.85%....
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The shelf life of government interventions is growing shorter. Seemingly the bigger the proposed intervention, the shorter its market impact. Likewise, as I warned over the weekend, an enraged public outcry means that Congress isn’t going to roll over and play dead in the face of a government proposal to put itself in the...
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