A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Monthly Archives: June 2008
K-wave: The seasons
The previous two posts on Kondratiev wave discussed the debt cycle and monetary base as the basis of the K-wave cycle. The goal of those article is too show that there is nothing magical in the fact that the economy is experiencing the secular cycles with the duration of 50+ years. In fact it’s...
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Most Important Support Test of Our Time – Professional Edition
They kept us in suspense on Monday, barely holding above one of the most critical chart support levels that we’ve faced in a long time. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the...
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Treasury Bombardment Increases- Professional Edition Fed Report
The Treasury announced another bombardment of unexpected new supply today, as government finances continue to spiral out of control to levels beyond even the pessimistic forecast of the government’s advisory panel of just two months ago. Making matters worse, the Fed seems unwilling to help the market absorb the burgeoning supply. Unless that changes,...
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US Dollar and Treasury Yield Update – Professional Edition
Latest cycle conditions and projections for the US Dollar Index and 10 Year Treasury Yield. Click links to download report in pdf format. (WSE Pro subscribers only). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s...
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China and Commodities – the Last Bubble
Many economists are closely watching China as the primary driving force behind the world economic growth and the commodities bubble. The alarm that this last bubble is about to pop was ringing several times in the last two years, but so far it proved to be a false alarm, and the commodities bubble resumed...
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A Make My Day Moment
Apparently Bankamerica is going ahead with the CountryFried deal on July 1st. There is little in the way of transparency about who eats it on this one, and we may not know for awhile. It just does not make sense to me that some full court press isn’t on to pile it on FDIC.
In...
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Epochal Turning Point – Professional Edition
The market took another spill on Friday. The losses were uneven, as sellers rotate from group to group, and those who are required to buy looked for places to hide. They may find that they can run but they can’t hide. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try...
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Hulbert Says Not Enough Capitulation
I like to read Mark Hulbert’s column over at Dow Jones’s Markitupwatch from time to time because I’m interested in what the mainstream newsletters are saying at certain times and I’m interested in Hulbert’s take on it because he’s such a good fade. Back on June 19, Hulbert posted an article saying that there...
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If It Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix It – Professional Edition Long Term Outlook
The market continues to conform to the long term forecast that has remained little changed since late last year. So not much has changed since our last update at the end of May. The market has merely reinforced that we are on the right track. Still, we need to keep our eye on certain...
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Bear Market debated on CNBC
The HUI FCS has been on a buy signal since early May and I am holding a GDX/GLD split long position. This has been a trade that really tested patience with the system as minor rallies fizzled and most of the time the trade was flat. Finally it looks as...
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Fish Kill Watch
On the inflationary fish kill watch comes data on the cost of construction. This would seem to throw cold water on the theory that a slowing economy alone stifles inflation. The reality is that inflation stifles the economy long before Phillips Curve economics takes hold. And unsound money accelerates the process.
The average cost of...
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K-wave: monetary base and interest rates
In the previous article we’ve established the existence of the extra-long debt cycle, which consists of the accumulation and unwinding phases. The next step is to evaluate the trends in monetary aggregates and interest rates.
For reference, let’s repeat the Great Debt Cycle, i.e. debt/GDP cycle chart that we saw before:
This credit cycle is called...
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UPDATE – Fed Goes Draconian – Professional Edition Fed Report
The Fed drained an astounding $26 billion in cash from the market on Thursday, dropping Fed credit outstanding to the lowest levels since November 2005. The result was readily apparent in the stock market, and the panic generated another flight to “safety” panic in the Treasury market. The suppression of rates and yields there...
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No Excuses – Professional Edition
What a day! It’s always more fun when you are positioned correctly, and today we came in with ETF chart picks that have been in place for a couple of weeks that were leveraged short tech, and unleveraged long gold. Of course, it would have been even more fun had yours truly not gotten...
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Fiddling While Rome Burns
As I mentioned on the podcast, the market reaction to the Fed’s fiddling while Rome burns claptrap is getting to be like shooting fish in a barrel. The verdict is in, and your blogger called it to a tee in real time. We got the standard sloppy rally, led once again almost exclusively...
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Professional Edition Precious Metals Update – 6/26/08
Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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Sound and Fury Signifying Nothing- Professional Edition
FOMC statement day and the day after are noise driven, so we shouldn’t try to make too much of them. Even if we did, today’s signals were a bit incoherent. Instead, let’s stay focused on the big picture in terms of cycles and liquidity. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional...
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Surprising No One- Professional Edition Fed Report
The Fed didn’t pull any surprises on Wednesday. As most pundits expected they stood pat on rates and made some hawkish statements about inflation. When the market forces the Fed to raise rates over the weeks ahead, it will appear as though the Fed is being proactive, when nothing could be further from the...
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Radio Free Wall Street 6/25/2008
Lee Adler, Russ Winter, and Aaron Krowne analyze the impact of the Fed inaction and other key financial events on the financial markets and economy and tell what to look for in the weeks and months ahead. Not a subscriber? Click here for a free extended preview of this podcast.
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Professional Edition Precious Metals Update – 6/25/08
Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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Hot Potato
Comes a good item describing the capital raising efforts of financial institutions. In effect what we have seen so far are that banks are writing off token losses, and generally managing to raise replacement capital. The early “bargain hunters” have been trashed, and now the question needs to be asked as to where these...
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The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly- Professional Edition
The market sank slowly into Fed day. That’s new. Usually the players anticipate that Uncle Ben will make everything all better. Not so anymore. Seems investors have lost faith. It’s about time isn’t it? Does the Fed really have a clue what to do? Of course not. The Fed certainly knows how to make...
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Fed Set Up for Failure- Professional Edition
The Fed pumped cash into the market holding both Fed Funds and Open Market Operations repo rates just below 2% on the eve of Wednesday’s policy announcement. In the past they have often signaled their intended action by allowing these rates to rise or fall. The fact that they acted to hold rates stable...
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Bottomless Pits and the Great Pretenders
There are a number of financial bottomless pits out there requiring “money to stay afloat” (translate: distressed Ponzi finance), but increasingly the appetite for this is just not there. Case in point is GMAC, the financial arm of GM, who is burning through cash like no tomorrow. Financing discussions are described as close calls....
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eCONomIc SpLiT pErSonaLiTy and NeutEnron Bombs
“In my time I have had desires to be a pirate myself.” - Mark Twain
Like the stock market, the economy is showing the distortion effects of SpLiT pErSonaLiTy Bubble eCONomIcs. According to state budget officers, revenue is booming in about a dozen states because of benefits from the Bubbles dujour, high energy...
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Funny jobs
In the late 90’s a lot of banking clerks and bartenders with some brain quickly completed the Cobol courses to become programmers - new cool profession that already drained anyone with at least some computing experience into dot-com bubble and Y2k bubble. Then what one would call a “creative destruction” happened and a lot...
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K-wave: The Great Debt Cycle
The future is pretty muddy now, which leaves some hope yet fears of invisible demons. One of the key features of the market economy that is important to keep in mind is that it is constantly healing itself, sometimes by few pills, sometimes by amputation. And the lack of pain and medication may hide...
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