A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Monthly Archives: May 2008
Podcast
New Lee Adler, Aaron Krowne and Russ Winter podcast is available. This marks my 14th straight week of participation since my return from Brazil.
Subscriptions to the podcast are modest, but you can find other ways of supporting this blog, including the tip jar in the right column, which I might add has...
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Readers commenting on Oil
Some of my recent posts were dedicated to the speculative nature of the recent commodities run-ups. To offset the possible bearish bias I want to re-post some of the very wise comments made by the readers of my old blog in the past months.
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Radio Free Wall Street 5/30/2008
Lee Adler, Aaron Krowne, and Russ Winter analyze the impact of key financial events on the financial markets and economy. Not a subscriber? Click here for a free extended preview of this podcast.
Subscribers only. Enter your login when prompted.
To subscribe and hear this podcast right now, click here!
If you have a question that you...
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Full Blown Inflation and Chaos
We have gasoline consumption numbers for the front end of Memorial Day weekend and it wasn’t pretty. As I am using this as an indicator of consumer spending, the extension is that the weekend was a bust.
Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed average demand fell slightly over the last few weeks....
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Ben bends but doesn’t break
As interest rates jumped off the bed this week it doesn’t seem to me that Ben is trying to move them back. My personal opinion is that Fed’s power to change interest rates is very limited. Just heard a guy on the Bloomberg podcast saying that right after the war dollar made pretty much...
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Letting the Bet Ride – WSE Pro
The market continued its rebound on Thursday, bringing bulls out of the woodwork. But the averages ran into major resistance lines where prices peaked today, and it remains to be seen whether it can breach a thick band of supply just above current levels. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional...
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Fed Allows Rates To Rise as Treasury Supply Balloons – WSE Pro
UPDATE – The Fed did a small drain in Thursday’s Open Market Operations in spite of the Treasury settling a significant increase in the supply of new paper. The results were seen in the T-bill market with rates on 13 week bills surging past 1.90, and the 17 day CMB auction going off above...
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Future Subjunctives: the Use of the Word If
Last week I wrote how Ministry of Truth propagandists create certain code words such as “crisis” to mask things. One of their long standing favorites is the word “if”. This one has been used for what seems like an eternity. Perhaps it is just me as I am learning a second language, but I...
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Bonds hit the fan
It’s time to revisit Treasuries as they finally seem to hit the fan. I went bullish treasury bonds at July 12 ‘07, then I’ve declared that I’m getting out in March. Today the chart looks especially bad:
It seems that it broke all possible necklines in H&S pattern and went below 200 DMA. What happened...
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Ben Swings and Misses – WSE Pro Fed Report – CORRECTION
The Fed stepped up in today’s Open Market Operations, adding a net of $3.75 billion to the market. The Fed’s actions of the past two days may signal the beginning of a reversal of the trend of shrinking the amount of Fed credit that has been so notable for the past two months. The...
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Schedule Note
Contrary to my announcement in Friday’s podcast, we decided to post our next podcast on Friday again this week. When I made the announcement I neglected to take into account the holiday this week, which left us with only one market day between casts. Sorry for the snafu. See you Friday!
-Lee
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Lingering Doubts – WSE Pro
The extension of the market’s post holiday rally left some niggling questions Wednesday. There’s not much in the way of confirmation that anything significant is under way. That can change in a flash of course, but it may be an uphill battle for all the reasons that we have been enumerating daily in the...
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Disconnects
Following on yesterday’s post on a change in transportation economics comes data from March that indicates that a major driving retrenchment is underway.
The Department of Transportation said figures from March show the steepest decrease in driving ever recorded. Compared with March a year earlier, Americans drove an estimated 4.3 percent less — that’s 11...
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Return to the Scene of the Crime – WSE Pro
The market began a classic return to the scene of the crime as it recovered to the line at 1384 that looked like the beginning of a breakdown to lower levels. It also moved back toward the critical 1396 level which is the baseline of a 3 month reverse head and shoulders pattern. Click...
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Fed Freezes as Treasury Supply Explodes – WSE Pro Fed Report
With the Treasury raising a record amount of new cash this week, the Fed is nowhere to be found. It drained another $2 billion today. If the Fed doesn’t step up it will be up to the foreign central banks (FCBs) to help the Primary Dealers absorb the crush of supply. Indirect bidders, who...
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Spill Over
It is increasingly evident that once the credit contraction hit the home equity line (HELOC) market last fall, the barn door was closed on the economy. The NY Times has a story and chart out illustrating just to what degree HELOCs were used as auto loans, especially in Bubble states. So now it appears...
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US Dollar and Treasury Yield Update – WSE Pro
Latest cycle conditions and projections for the US Dollar Index and 10 Year Treasury Yield. Click links to download report in pdf format. (WSE Pro subscribers only). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s...
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Bear Market Tries To Dig In – WSE Pro Long Term Outlook
Last week’s selloff gave the bear case new life on the long term charts. Whether that’s sustained, or the bull comes back depends on several important technical keys. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you...
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The last bubble in the investment desert
“the investment desert is littered with the bones of those who bet on new paradigms” - Jeremy Grantham
It must be something unusual to happen to bring the attention. Few years ago I heard a story that Africa is considering to switch to wireless telephony because peasants are stealing wires for copper and any attempt...
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Podcast
New Lee Adler, Aaron Krowne, and Russ Winter podcast is available, with first thirteen minutes preview for non-subscribers.
© Russ Winter for Winter (Economic & Market) Watch, 2008. |
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Pre-Holiday Week Un-American! WSE Pro
It isn’t often that we have seen the market so weak the week before a 3 day holiday weekend. Why, it’s un-American! But the onslaught of debt being issued by the US government is bearing down on the market, and the US Fed seemingly isn’t in a mood to grease the skids for all...
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Radio Free Wall Street 5/23/2008
Lee Adler, Aaron Krowne, and Russ Winter analyze the impact of key financial events on the financial markets and economy. Not a subscriber? Click here for a free extended preview of this podcast.
Subscribers only. Enter your login when prompted.
To subscribe and hear this podcast right now, click here!
If you have a question that you...
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Aunt Millie-iced
Here come a tale that reminds me of my little brother back in the day. He had this habit of sticking his tongue on freezer ice and sure enough we heard a muffled screech from the basement. Least you think the stuck tongue scene from Dumb and Dumber is fiction, it is not. There...
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Not A Happy Picture – WSE Pro
The stock market averages had a little back up today, but there was no real sign of technical improvement. In fact, the opposite. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful,...
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Pounding Continues As Fed Tightens Handcuffs – WSE Pro Fed Report Weekly Roundup
LATE UPDATE - The Treasury announced another week of pounding ahead as it plans to dump another mountain of new supply on the market next week. Meanwhile, the Fed again did a big drain in OMO that was more than enough to offset the increase in the TAF. As the Fed feeds liquidity out...
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