A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Monthly Archives: April 2008
The Real Move- WSE Pro
Normally the knee jerk reaction after a Fed meeting is the head fake, with a reversal the following day kicking off the “real move”. In this case however, cycle based screening measures are indicating danger ahead, and some broad market indicators are on short term sell signals. Click here to download complete report in...
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Fun To Stay With The F-O-M-C – WSE Pro Fed Report
No surprise, the Fed Funds target ¼ point. It also added reserves for a second day (details at end of report). Next week the Treasury will sell 5 and 10 year notes in the amounts that had been forecast, but in a press release today the Treasury confirmed what we have foreseen and reported...
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More Kool-Aid
Of late there has been a big ramp in consumer and retail stocks as the conventional wisdom is getting all lathered up about Joe Ultra Light Sixpack taking rebate checks and running out to splurge at the mall. Does this make any sense at all, or is it just more Kool-Aid? I suggest...
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Hints Of A Turn- WSE Pro
Wednesday is Fed day. The preludes leading up to the event and the immediate crescendo of noise on the heels of the announcement typically need to be filtered out in order to stay focused on the big picture. In this case, it’s even more important to wait out the initial reaction because the major...
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The Turning of The Worm- WSE Pro Fed Report
Listening to the mainstream financial informercial media, it’s evident that the Fed has put the word out to expect a cut tomorrow, but that this will be the last cut. The Fed is playing a cute game to make it appear that they are in control, when they aren’t, because they know that the...
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Feeble Attempts to Stem Mad Max
On the Mad Max economic front it appears that the short term response from the USD recyclers is to raise bank reserve ratios. The effect of this is to slightly “sterilize” (remove from the system) the USDs and Yen coming in. These will be Dollars that won’t be recycled back into low return...
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Waiting For the Noise- WSE Pro
The market was little changed on Monday, giving up the gains from a modest rally late in the day. Most indicators remained strong, however, and price projections continue to suggest slightly higher highs over the next week or so. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional...
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The Last Respite – WSE Pro Fed Report
The Fed did a small net add in Open Market Operations on Monday as it held its asset base at the lowest levels of the past 19 months. Whatever is causing the massive increase in money supply numbers over the past couple of months, it certainly is not the Fed. More likely it is...
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The Shrinking Pie Effect
It seems to me that predominating now in the markets is something that could be called the “shrinking pie effect” (as I try my hand at my own version of Winterisms…) : basically this is the propensity of the credit bubble in the widest sense to continue deflating even as various bailouts and pumping...
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Dilemna with a Big D
Some more items that add color to my weekend post and our podcast on the hyper-inflationary USD recycling travesty. This article seems to use Prisoner’s Dilemma as the rationale for wrecking one’s economy with inflation. In fact countries like the UAE are already out in the water without bathing suits...
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WSE Pro Precious Metals Update 4/27/08
Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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Gold bull drops dead?
Gold dropped over $100 the week following a surge to its all time high price of $1,011 an ounce. The following week, CNBC parrots repeated several times a day that gold just suffered its largest one week drop ever. During ...
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Edgeout! WSE Pro
The Dow and Nasdaq extended the upmoves that began with major base breakouts on April 18 while the lagging SPX edged through a major resistance level, Friday. That edgeout doesn’t necessarily mean that it will be all clear sailing from here as there are layers of resistance between 1400 and 1425 that could stop...
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Tin Cups and Ponzi Boyz
New Lee Adler, Aaron Krowne, and Russ Winter podcast is available, including free preview portion. Here is a key related note and item.
On the question of foreign central banks, I spotted this item showing that of late it has been Russia who has been engaging USD buying interventions to stem the appreciation...
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Both eyes on treasuries, third eye on rice
While the fabrics of the world financial system is too complicated for anyone to understand it is sometimes possible to track several bold moves that are likely to lead into equally bold consequences.
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Radio Free Wall Street 4/25/2008
Lee Adler, Russ Winter, and Aaron Krowne analyze the likely impact of key financial events on the stock and bond markets, and in particular the problems that will be triggered in the bond market by the economic stimulus payments. Are these the ingredients for a giant sucking sound? Not a subscriber? Click here...
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Fed Cuts Asset Base to 19 Month Low, Will Also Redeem Treasuries
This is an update to the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Fed and Treasury Report, Thursday Roundup. The Fed did a sizable net drain of $5.75 billion in today’s Open Market Operations, bringing the 5 day net to a drain of $4.75 billion. This brings the Fed’s Liquid Asset Base (Fed Credit Outstanding) to...
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Like Watching the World Series
The Wizards of Oz (see primer on Winterisms, side bar and header) are hard at work managing collapsing tax revenues and the writing of a big $150 billion check to JULS (see Winterisms) in two weeks. As I’ve predicted we are now seeing problems emerging in Treasuries. Foreign central banks (FCB) finally...
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Trouble Brewing Behind the Scenes- WSE Pro Fed Report
The Fed’s Primary Dealer Credit (PDCF) fell sharply on the week, which along with the drop in Term Securities Laundering (TSLF) suggests an easing in the credit market crisis for the time being. But at the same time borrowing at the Discount Window rose sharply to levels generally only seen at times of crisis,...
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Ifs, Ands, and Butts – WSE Pro
The Dow tried and failed to extend its breakout. The SPX tried to break out of its huge base for a second time, but it too didn’t quite make it. The end of the story isn’t written however. Multiple cycle projections on the SPX continue to point toward the low 1400s and most cycles...
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Auction Indigestion and Dirty Laundry Goes Back- WSE Pro Fed Report
This is an advance version, unedited and unproofed. Data on the PDCF, Discount Window borrowings, and FCB activity over the past week will be released after the close. This report will be updated at that time. The Treasury’s 5 year note auction went poorly, with an extremely low bid to cover, a big jump...
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Tax Receipts: Unmitigated Disaster
Barry Ritzholz wrote a piece taking Charles Biderman of Trimtabs to task for using faulty taxes withheld data from the Daily Treasury Statement (DTS) to proclaim that “the recession in over”. Incredibly it now appears this recovery chorus is being drummed up by about any method, so get used to it. My readers...
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The Second Act, Comedy and Tragedy – WSE Pro
The crowd milled around in the lobby today awaiting the second act in the evening, not knowing what to expect. What they got was a little comedy and a little tragedy, the first with an Apple and the latter with a latte from Starbucks. AAPL recovered. SBUX didn’t, and the market seemed to be...
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Pressure Will Build From Wrong Way Trends- WSE Pro Fed Report
Interest rates were lower in today’s Open Market Operations as the Fed essentially stood pat. The flood of Treasury Cash Management Bill (CMB) paydowns this week has finally had an effect in the money market, suppressing both the overnight Fed Funds rate and the rates at today’s repo auction. Conversely, the yield at the...
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The Jackass Reality Show
I went to another supermarket, and then another, and there was no butter at those either. Everywhere I went there were notices saying Japan has run out of butter.
Yes, the opening sentence was not referring to Egypt, Haiti, or the Philippines. Japan too is in the cross hairs of the Mad Max eCONomy.
While...
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