A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Monthly Archives: February 2008
Fed Bails To No Avail Against Flood of Treasuries – WSE Pro
The ship is sinking. The Fed continued the fastest 3 week expansion of the monetary base in the past 7 years on Friday. But it was not enough to offset the $76 billion in new Treasury debt that is settling during the period from yesterday to Monday. Outside of the week after 9/11/01, nothing...
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Where There’s Smoke, Is There Fire? WSE Pro
The stock market sank under the weight of an onslaught of Treasury paper in spite of lots of help from the Fed. This began to trigger indications of a possible turn on cycles of up to 13 weeks. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition...
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Crowding Out- The Unreported Crisis- WSE Pro
The Fed kept up the pace of the fastest 3 week expansion of the monetary base in the past 7 years in an effort to help the Primary Dealers absorb $76 billion in new Treasury supply over 3 days. It was not enough to keep stocks from selling off. Click here to download complete...
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Radio Free Wall Street 2/28/2008
Lee Adler and Aaron Krowne talk about the latest happenings in the financial arena, with a focus on the collapse of, local, state and especially US Government finances, and why the latest housing data is worse than the media is reflecting.
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Aunt Fannie and Uncle Freddie’s Big Rubber Hose
In an apparent move to get the implied guarantee of the government even further into the propping up fictitious housing prices, the portfolio limits on Freddie and Fannie Mac were lifted. Although the initial reaction of the markets (see MBS chart) to this shaved coin approach has been negative, it is evident that...
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In This Corner- WSE Pro
The rally stalled on Wednesday, setting up a crucial test of strength in the Heavyweight Championship bout between the Treasury and the Fed over the next 3 days. The stall left some interesting clues. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty...
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Fed Injects Steroids – WSE Pro
The Fed forced a ton of cash into the market on Wednesday, as expected. In preparation for the Treasury’s enormous issuance of new paper the Fed added a net of $11.5 billion with an overnight repo in that amount against no expirations. That pushed the 5 day net to a net add of $15.75...
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A Dry Well: With a Large Firehose Stuck Into It
At a time when real capital is scarce we see that Visa is planning to come to market with the biggest IPO in history. In terms of investor liquidity this supply could result a giant sucking sound for the markets. As I have posted before, individuals have been pulling funds out of 401k funds...
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As Good As It Gets – WSE Pro
Cyclical indicators made a tremendous upward surge on Tuesday. The move comes relatively late in the 13 week cycle up phase, and it was not accompanied by a price breakout. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that...
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More Coal To Newcastle- WSE Pro
in its best “carrying coal to Newcastle” tradition, the Treasury announced today that it would sell yet another $30 billion in CMBs on Thursday to settle next Monday. That’s $76 billion in new Treasury supply over 3 days, and $141 billion in new money in the last 3 weeks. Can the market sustain a...
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WSE Pro Dollar Index and Bond Yields Update – 02/26/08
Latest cycle conditions and projections for the US Dollar Index and 10 Year Treasury Yield. Click links to download report in pdf format. (WSE Pro subscribers only). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s...
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Wicked Witch of the East: I’m Melting.
In yesterday’s post the concept or Winterism of LIED was presented. Today’s focus is on the E or evaporate portion of the equation. Evaporate refers to the fuel (credit) needed to maintain Ponzi economies. It can also refer to the Ponzi economy itself. In effect when the fuel evaporates, the Ponzi economy itself melts,...
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Rationality Breaks Out – WSE Pro
The market finally broke out of its intermediate downtrend channel, thanks to one of the ratings agencies reaffirming its AAA rating on Ambac. If you want to know what I really think about that, see the two articles just below this one on the front page of the Wall Street Examiner. Click here to...
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Standard and Poors Introduces New Corporate Logo
Thanks to Jetlag at Capitalstool.com’s Stool Pigeons Wires for reporting.
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BULLETIN- Wire Service Reports Gates, Buffet To Form Ratings Agency
BULLETIN - (Capitalstool.com’s Stool Pigeons News Wires) Warren Buffet and Bill Gates to form new rating agency. They will offer new rating of AAAA and insurance on “AAAA” bonds. that is all. Stoolie Speakeasy reported this story.
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Broken Field Runner- WSE Pro
Operating like a broken field runner, the Fed added a net of $5.5 billion to the market on Monday. It was the 5th day in a row in which they changed direction between adding and draining reserves. The 5 day net was nearly even, far short of the $22 billion of new supply the...
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LIED
The Ministries of Truth (MoT) have coined some new benign terms to describe the current economic scene. Stagflation and decoupling lead the pack, and have been added to the now debunked “subprime only” nonsense, which has been quietly replaced with contagion. All these terms are designed to turn extremely severe challenges into something more...
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35 Minutes of Terror- WSE Pro
Linrom, one of the posters at Capitalstool.com, described Friday’s action best—“35 minutes of terror;” which, if you were short, it most certainly was, as the market staged what appeared to be a rigged move based on a well timed rumor of yet another bailout of the “monoline” insurers. As wild as it was, in...
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All The Kings Horses
Here’s the theme of a best seller, another in our series of the Best of Capitalstool.com. “All the Kings’ men and all the Kings’ Horses cannot put the A-A-A rating back together again! How many times have we been told about the bail-out of the bond insurers?
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Commercial Real Estate in the Crosshairs?
The WSJ ran an article pointing out that conditions so far in the commercial real estate mortgage market hardly reflect the difficulties implied by the CMBX, credit insurance indicator.
Actual delinquencies on commercial-mortgage bonds hit a record low of 0.27% in January, according to Fitch Ratings. Among 40,000 loans in these bonds, only 293 were...
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US Benefactors Step Up Again – WSE Pro
Foreign Central Banks bought a world record $17.5 billion of Fannie and Freddie paper this week. The 3 1/2 year bailout of the US mortgage markets by foreign benefactors continues. Meanwhile, the Fed remains stingy, and the Treasury continues to blast the market with supply. Without the efforts of the FCBs, things would be...
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Death by Slow-Motion Asphyxiation
Just reading through the various mainstream media stories and articles one can sense that faith in the Wizard of Oz is really waining. Typical is this one by Jon Markham on why the prop jobs are failing. He points to the two reasons long expressed on this blog: 1. the fictitious pricing of securities...
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Two Weeks of Interesting Times – WSE Pro
The market continues to stumble when it should be strutting. Time analysis says that it should be emerging from 13 week and 6 month cycle lows. Instead it is staggering around like a drunken stumblebum. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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Fed Still Refusing To Goose Markets- WSE Pro
The Fed added a net of $1.25 billion to the market on Thursday. The operations consisted of $11 billion in 14 day, $8 billion in 7 day, and $6 billion in overnight repos, against $23.75 billion in expirations. The 5 day net dropped to an add of $12 billion, well short of the $22...
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