Here are today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day...
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Radio Free Wall Street
Monthly Archives: December 2007
Technical difficulties, do not adjust your set – WSE Pro
On the last day of the year, the Fed aggressively added reserves and pushed stop out rates on the repo auctions down dramatically, to levels well below the Fed Funds target. The aggressive action came even though Fed Funds had traded 24 basis points below target on Friday evening. All of which raises the...
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Figures Lie, Liars Figure
The National Association of Rattlers (NAR) reported today that sales of existing homes rose in November. Upon hearing the news, Steve Liesman (is that the best name ever for a financial talking head, or what?) proclaimed on CNBS that the bottom was in. Oh really? Let’s have a looky loo at the NAR press...
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WSE Pro Holiday Publication Schedule
The Fed report will be posted Monday 12/31/07. The market update will not be posted 12/31/07 or 1/1/08. It will return Wednesday evening 1/2/08. The Precious Metals report for Monday AM has been posted. All regular daily reports will return on Wednesday. Happy New Year!
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Macro Liquidity Still Flat as Fed Looks Wrong Way- WSE Pro
Net macro-liquidity creation has been virtually flat since last June. Such periods of flat liquidity growth are usually associated with a choppy, rangebound stock market. The market has yet to be tested by a period where the MLI actually declines. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional...
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Likely Signals From Flat Trend – WSE Pro
Not much has changed since our last look at the long term structures back on November 11. The Dow has been at the top of the 36 year cycle band for the past 8 months. The question has been whether it would reverse or break out. It’s still not answered. The 36 year cycle...
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Market Managers Manage, But No Cake – WSE Pro
The market managers managed to keep the tape steady on the next to last trading day of 2007 after a rally failed in the morning and threatened to turn into a meltdown in the afternoon. In the end, neither side got to have their cake, or eat it. Click here to download complete report...
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Crazy Aunt in the Attic Revisted
There really has not been much mentioned in the MSM about one of the Crazy Aunts, pay option ARMS, made almost exclusively to “prime” borrowers. The LA Times finally got around to writing a good article about them. One of the data points I was wondering about was mentioned, and that’s the number of...
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Bellwethers Update- WSE Pro
While 13 week cycles are mostly still in up phases, the move is getting ready to roll over on many charts. Charts updated to include mid day prices from Friday 12/28. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you...
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Now You See It, Now You Don’t – WSE Pro
Since the Fed’s first TAF operation on December 17 the Fed has reduced the size of the SOMA by nearly $25 billion. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will...
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All the Pain but Little of the Recognition
“We will witness a depression with an Orwellian spin, all the pain but little of the recognition”. - Jim Willie CB
I lead off with a link to a piece written under the moniker Jim Willie CB. His writing is a bit like my 35 minute Pimsleur Portuguese lessons, some what hard to get through,...
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Down to the End – WSE Pro
The market dropped sharply as a few more traders returned to work. The news backdrop took the blame as usual, but the market is vulnerable in terms of both liquidity and cycles. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within...
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The Biggest Story- Ben The Liquidity Slasher- WSE Pro
One of the most important stories of the year continued to unfold with little fanfare on Thursday as the Fed continued to drain liquidity from the financial markets. It did a net drain of $2.5 billion on the day, even after the addition of $20 billion in new TAF credit settled. Click here to...
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Doin’ the Funk
I like to use state tax revenues as a superior non-Ministry of Truth barometer of economic activity. This too continues to suggest that the US has been slipping into a deeper and deeper funk. California especially has been in my focus, but now we see that New York tax receipts are dormant as well.
•New...
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East Side A Christmas Bust?
In our continuing series of the Best of Capitalstool.com, we have this report from Stoolie “4shzl” on the holiday season in Manhattan: Spent the week before Xmas in New Jack City — mostly in museums and galleries where the wealth of art on display was so rich and varied that it was almost possible...
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Isn’t That Special – WSE Pro
The Santa Claus rally continued on Wednesday, just by the skin of the turkey. The question is whether the party will last through New Year’s Eve or the hangover will start before that. The cyclical evidence suggests that it probably will last for a few days, but the evidence as to how much higher...
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More Facts on Current Fed and Treasury Impacts
The Fed did a paltry $500 million net add today, leaving the 5 day net change in the System Open Market Account still at a net drain of $10.95 billion. That compares with a 5 day net add of $12.3 billion on the day after Christmas last year. The 4 week net is currently...
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Did the Grinch Steal Christmas?
Holiday sales reports typically tend to be spun about any way Wall Street wants. All the same it seems this season was quite punky. Mastercard Spending Plus (also online) was barely up, hinting that profits margins on goods sold were squeezed by discounting.
From the day after Thanksgiving to midnight Monday, total retail sales, excluding...
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Just the Facts Ma’am, Just The Facts
The common misconception that the Fed is adding massive amounts of liquidity to the system continues to run rampant, both in the mainstream financial infomercial media and, disappointingly, in the blogosphere. While the BOE and ECB have made enormous increases in their monetary bases over the past couple of months in response to a...
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GOLD: Year end review and outlook
The HUI FCS continues on a SELL signal but could change to buy very soon. Gold is consolidating just above $800 and forming a very reliable continuation pattern; the high, tight pendant formation. A convenient feature of this structure is they frequently mark the midway point of strong price impulses; so another surge to $975 appears to be close at hand! This...
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Leaking
In what in my view is a follow through consequence of the demise of nonconforming mortgages last Fall, we now have preliminary evidence from October that trouble is quickly leaking through to credit card securitization trusts. This is of course unsecured debt with the potential for little recovery. If Joe Ultra Light Sixpack can’t...
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The Pushers
In another of our series of The Best of Capitalstool.com, Stoolie “shorty” relates a telling tale of a brief encounter with a representative of Bank of America: I called Bank of America with a simple question and they put some frantic shyster on the line and he tried to push out a maSSive chunk...
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Professional Edition Holiday Publication Schedule
All regular reports of the Professional Edition will not be published Monday 12/24 or Christmas Day. The Precious Metals Report and Fed Report will also not be published Wednesday 12/26 but an abbreviated Market Update will be published Wednesday night 12/26. All regular features will be published Thursday 12/27 and Friday 12/28. The Precious...
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WSE Pro Dollar Index and Bond Yields Update – 12/22/07
Latest cycle conditions and projections for the US Dollar Index and 10 Year Treasury Yield. Click links to download report in pdf format. (WSE Pro subscribers only). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s...
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The Unimportant Individual
How true, the words of this wise man originally posted at Capitalstool.com: It’s amazing to read the press, or the Stool for that matter, and see just how unimportant the individual has become in the movement of all these financial events. Such and such an agency downgrades XXX and so YYY entities and issues...
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Yes Virginia, There Is A Santa Claus On Wall Street – WSE Pro
Santa Claus finally showed up on Wall Street. The lack of long term directional impetus is allowing noise and spin to take center stage at the moment. Add to that the fact that the market is extremely thin in this range, with short term cycles turning up Santa may have some fireworks in his...
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Fed Too Tight – WSE Pro
The Fed put back a small portion of the $19 billion it drained from the market on Thursday by adding $6.75 billion in 3 day repos against $2 billion in expirations for what would have been a sizable $4.75 billion net add. In this case, however, it left the 5 day net at a...
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Taffy Pull
Lee Adler goes more into the issue on so called central bank activity, but suffice to say that any new lending provided through the Fed new Taffy Pull has been offset by significant drains in the Fed’s TOMO account. On Thursday and Friday a net $19.0 billion was pulled at he same time $20...
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