Archive for December, 2007

On the last day of the year, the Fed aggressively added reserves and pushed stop out rates on the repo auctions down dramatically, to levels well below the Fed Funds target. The aggressive action came even though Fed Funds had traded 24 basis points below target on Friday evening. All of which raises the...
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The National Association of Rattlers (NAR) reported today that sales of existing homes rose in November. Upon hearing the news, Steve Liesman (is that the best name ever for a financial talking head, or what?) proclaimed on CNBS that the bottom was in. Oh really? Let’s have a looky loo at the NAR press release and...
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The Fed report will be posted Monday 12/31/07. The market update will not be posted 12/31/07 or 1/1/08. It will return Wednesday evening 1/2/08. The Precious Metals report for Monday AM has been posted. All regular daily reports will return on Wednesday. Happy New Year!
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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Net macro-liquidity creation has been virtually flat since last June. Such periods of flat liquidity growth are usually associated with a choppy, rangebound stock market. The market has yet to be tested by a period where the MLI actually declines. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try...
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Not much has changed since our last look at the long term structures back on November 11. The Dow has been at the top of the 36 year cycle band for the past 8 months. The question has been whether it would reverse or break out. It’s still not answered. The 36 year cycle...
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The market managers managed to keep the tape steady on the next to last trading day of 2007 after a rally failed in the morning and threatened to turn into a meltdown in the afternoon. In the end, neither side got to have their cake, or eat it. Click here to download...
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There really has not been much mentioned in the MSM about one of the Crazy Aunts, pay option ARMS, made almost exclusively to “prime” borrowers. The LA Times finally got around to writing a good article about them. One of the data points I was wondering about was mentioned, and that’s the number of...
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While 13 week cycles are mostly still in up phases, the move is getting ready to roll over on many charts. Charts updated to include mid day prices from Friday 12/28.  Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time...
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Just about everyone these days likes to bash the dollar. While the reasons are many, the easiest statistic is to point to the dollar index. The clownbuck has been falling for many years against most relevant G-7 currencies, specifically the Euro. The assumption behind the dollar bashing, of course, is that...
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Since the Fed’s first TAF operation on December 17 the Fed has reduced the size of the SOMA by nearly $25 billion. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful,...
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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“We will witness a depression with an Orwellian spin, all the pain but little of the recognition”. - Jim Willie CB I lead off with a link to a piece written under the moniker Jim Willie CB. His writing is a bit like my 35 minute Pimsleur Portuguese lessons, some what hard to get through,...
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The market dropped sharply as a few more traders returned to work. The news backdrop took the blame as usual, but the market is vulnerable in terms of both liquidity and cycles. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days....
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One of the most important stories of the year continued to unfold with little fanfare on Thursday as the Fed continued to drain liquidity from the financial markets. It did a net drain of $2.5 billion on the day, even after the addition of $20 billion in new TAF credit settled. Click...
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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I like to use state tax revenues as a superior non-Ministry of Truth barometer of economic activity. This too continues to suggest that the US has been slipping into a deeper and deeper funk. California especially has been in my focus, but now we see that New York tax receipts are dormant as well. •New...
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Shareholders have gotten a raw deal over the last few years. Many companies have paid shareholders little or no dividends. Others have used cash flow to repurchase shares in astounding amounts. And yet still, countless companies have taken on new debt to repurchase shares. The top prize for shareholder abuse...
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In our continuing series of the Best of Capitalstool.com, we have this report from Stoolie “4shzl” on the holiday season in Manhattan: Spent the week before Xmas in New Jack City — mostly in museums and galleries where the wealth of art on display was so rich and varied that it was almost possible for...
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The Santa Claus rally continued on Wednesday, just by the skin of the turkey. The question is whether the party will last through New Year’s Eve or the hangover will start before that. The cyclical evidence suggests that it probably will last for a few days, but the evidence as to how much higher...
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The Fed did a paltry $500 million net add today, leaving the 5 day net change in the System Open Market Account still at a net drain of $10.95 billion. That compares with a 5 day net add of $12.3 billion on the day after Christmas last year. The 4 week net is currently...
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Holiday sales reports typically tend to be spun about any way Wall Street wants. All the same it seems this season was quite punky. Mastercard Spending Plus (also online) was barely up, hinting that profits margins on goods sold were squeezed by discounting. From the day after Thanksgiving to midnight Monday, total retail sales, excluding...
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The common misconception that the Fed is adding massive amounts of liquidity to the system continues to run rampant, both in the mainstream financial infomercial media and, disappointingly, in the blogosphere. While the BOE and ECB have made enormous increases in their monetary bases over the past couple of months in response to a...
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The HUI FCS continues on a SELL signal but could change to buy very soon.  Gold is consolidating just above $800 and forming a very reliable continuation pattern; the high, tight pendant formation.  A convenient feature of this structure is they frequently mark the midway point of strong price impulses; so another surge to $975 appears to be close at hand! This...
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In what in my view is a follow through consequence of the demise of nonconforming mortgages last Fall, we now have preliminary evidence from October that trouble is quickly leaking through to credit card securitization trusts. This is of course unsecured debt with the potential for little recovery. If Joe Ultra Light Sixpack can’t...
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In another of our series of The Best of Capitalstool.com, Stoolie “shorty” relates a telling tale of a brief encounter with a representative of Bank of America: I called Bank of America with a simple question and they put some frantic shyster on the line and he tried to push out a maSSive chunk of...
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So you don’t think that the Plunge Protection Team exists?   Perhaps you think that this is the half-baked notion of some crazy conspiracy theorists? Then you must think that George Stephanopoulos (top advisor to President Clinton) was lying when he said the following on ABC’s “Good Morning America” on September 17, 2001:
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All regular reports of the Professional Edition will not be published Monday 12/24 or Christmas Day. The Precious Metals Report and Fed Report will also not be published Wednesday 12/26 but an abbreviated Market Update will be published Wednesday night 12/26. All regular features will be published Thursday 12/27 and Friday 12/28. The Precious Metals...
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Latest cycle conditions and projections for the US Dollar Index and 10 Year Treasury Yield. Click links to download report in pdf format. (WSE Pro subscribers only). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund....
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How true, the words of this wise man originally posted at Capitalstool.com: It’s amazing to read the press, or the Stool for that matter, and see just how unimportant the individual has become in the movement of all these financial events. Such and such an agency downgrades XXX and so YYY entities and issues take...
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