A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Monthly Archives: October 2007
Helicopter Pilot Rescues Pig – WSE Pro
The first reaction to the Fed rate cut was disappointment. The shorts were then disappointed that the selling quickly dried up. That turned into a squeeze, which morphed into bullphoria by the end of the session. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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Fed Throws A Curve- WSE Pro
The Fed only cut ¼ point off the Fed Funds target, disappointing some traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click...
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More on the Emerging Pay Option and Alt A Fiasco
Following on Monday’s post on pay option ARMs comes an item from Calculated Risk (CR) that gives further flavor on the issue and cites charts and info from a Bankamerica report. Remember pay option ARM allow debtors to make very minimal debt service payments in the early years. But then they recast to...
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The Bigger They Are, The Harder They Fall – WSE Pro
The market spent the day in suspended animation as the players awaited the Fed announcement due at 2:15 on Wednesday. Bifurcation was pronounced with the Nasdaq rising, and the broader market falling. Energy and other inflation hedges fell sharply. Does some big shot expect the Fed to return to its role as inflation fighter?...
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Ben To The Rescue – WSE Pro
Facing rising Fed Funds rates the Fed added $8.25 billion to the market pool on Tuesday. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s...
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Shylocks and Village Idiots
I came across a chart from Loan Performance that illustrates just how egregious the large scale shylocking by financial institutions was on the subprime fiasco. The term used here, “DTI proforma” , measures what debt to income on 2005 and 2006 vintage subprime teaser loans would have required if the loan were fully indexed,...
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HUI punches FCS to buy!
The HUI broke through a very significant resistant confluence today and at the same time the FCS has gone to a BUY signal. Mid-day I was very pleased with how price was holding so I entered half the position in GDX and will enter the remainder at tomorrow’s open. The HUI 423 level represents important Fibonacci and...
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Worried, or Insane? WSE Pro
The market continued its high wire act in the face of grave dangers lurking below. Is this a market climbing a wall of worry on rising liquidity in classic bull fashion, or is it a rally based on a false premise, insanely laughing in the face of an underlying crash of capital on the...
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Fed Pretends Tight, Treasury Prepares Windfall – WSE Pro
The Fed has surprisingly drained reserves over the past 5 days, in spite of the Treasury hitting up the market for big new loans. Maybe the Fed is getting ready for the estimated $33 billion gift horse coming from Uncle Hank the Paulie Man later this week. Just a little more lipstick for the...
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WSE Pro Dollar Index and Bond Yields Update – 10/29/07
Latest cycle conditions and projections for the US Dollar Index and 10 Year Treasury Yield. Click links to download report in pdf format. (WSE Pro subscribers only). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s...
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Desperation?
As the non-traditional mortgage collapsed it looks like Joe Ultra Light Sixpack (JULS) has turned to her credit cards for staying in the game. In my mind this is desperation, and this high cost credit is being used for essentials like energy and food. Further stress has been added by higher prices...
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Impressao do Brasil
After twenty four days in Brazil I am now ready to say I love it here. So much so that I’m extending my stay until November 29th.
I have spent about nineteen days in Rio de Janerio, both in Aproador and now Ipanema. Five other days were spent in Buzios (the Sun Coast), and...
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Markets Exhibiting Severe Split Personality
I’m not sure how to characterize the market’s action, but bullish doesn’t especially come to mind. Over the last month or two a number of high profile financial and consumer stocks have been routed. I would mention the following just to name a few; Countrywide, Moodys, MBI, WaMu, Coach, Nordstrom,...
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On The Razor’s Edge – WSE Pro
It was off to the races Friday as the market surged across its recent trading range. They closed it on a critical long term trendline. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information...
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Ben Not Tipping Hand- WSE Pro
The Fed added $1.5 billion to the market pool on Friday with $7.5 billion in weekend repos against expirations of $6 billion. The move left the 5 day net at an add of $4.25 billion. $24 billion in net new Treasuries were auctioned this week. About $4 billon of that settled Thursday, with the...
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Leaking Like a SIV- WSE Pro
The increase in volatility is a sign of market depth shriveling as liquidity gets destroyed. One of the world’s biggest market makers just lost $8 billion of its capital, with more losses almost certain in the quarters ahead. They will not be standing there with a multitude of bids as the market comes down,...
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FCBs Buying Fannie Paper As Fed Drains – WSE Pro
The Fed pulled $9 billion out of the market on Thursday by adding $6 billion in overnight repos, $19 billion in 7 day repos and $6 billion in 14 day repos against expirations of $40 billion. Meanwhile foreign central banks were buying Fannie paper by the truckload, helping to keep US markets liquid. Click...
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Radio Free Wall Street 10/25/2007
Lee Adler and Aaron Krowne discuss the latest developments in the mortgage and housing markets and their long term implications. Not a subscriber? Click here for a free preview of this podcast.
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Click here to view Fed System Open Market Account (SOMA) chart referenced in this podcast....
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Trends in Motion
Reports from large homebuilders like Centex indicate that large scale job layoffs have recently occurred. The 40 percent workforce reduction reported now seems consistent with the housing start level at 1.191 million. With new home sales running at only 770,000, even the 40% decline in construction employment now looks problematic. This chart...
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Jackasses
Can you identify the jackasses in this Faux News report broadcast on August 18? Hint- Merrill Lynch coughed up an $8 billion dollar loss today.
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Get Used To It – WSE Pro
Driven by alternating waves, first of fear, then of hope, the day was full of thrills, chills, and excitement. In the end it was little more than entertainment as the market closed virtually unchanged. From a cyclical perspective it wasn’t the recovery or the fact that the market closed unchanged that was surprising, but...
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Fed Pumps, Cuts Stop Out Rate – WSE Pro
The Fed added a net of $6.5 billion to the market with an overnight repo of that amount against no expirations. The move left the 5 day net at an add of $9.75 billion which should help the market to absorb $24 billion in net new Treasuries being auctioned this. Click here to download...
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Bezos Not Laughing After Hours – WSE
After hours carnage has wiped out all of the market’s late afternoon gains and most of the gains on the day. That tempers some of the end of day indicator readings. What was starting out to look like a formidable rally as the 4 week cycle turns up, may turn out not to be...
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The Tipping Point- WSE Pro
Indirect bidders bought substantially less of today’s TIPS auction than they did at the last such auction in April. They also cut back on 4 week bills. Meanwhile the Fed drained reserves at the same time as the Treasury asks the market for $20 billion in new cash this week. Click here to download...
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