Archive for September, 2007

Our week away finds the market about where it started. Not much has changed, except for the fact that time has passed. That means that a 10-13 week cycle peak is drawing closer. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty...
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I have been on the road this week  and was offline for several days, moving back to our Florida base. It will be another day or so until everything is up and running, and the next podcast will be posted ASAP! Thanks for your patience.
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In a rerun of last spring’s litany of takeover rumors comes one involving Bear Stearns and Warren Buffet. I guess the way this one works is Warren puts in a call, talks a little biz, and sources close to the scene float a rumor and then the stock (and market) ramps? The same game...
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After working the paper tiger monetary theme to death, it seems fitting to focus some on the swooning real economy. The bulls of course think that this can be cured simply by taking down rates without corresponding serious blowback (except in the inflation and collapsing US Dollar plays they hold), and I guess...
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Japan’s net exports grew again. So what else is new?
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It took awhile but at last a big time money manager (John Hussman) tackled the myth about the Fed. We (Lee Adler and myself) were beginning to feel like Alice in Wonderland on this one. The liquidity myth is repeated over and over in my comment section and elsewhere. Therefore I am just going...
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One of the tools the United States uses to establish dominance is through multilateral institutions. Not just the United States, but the entire G-7. There are many of these institutions established in the post-World War II era, and an interesting question nowadays is whether they are relevant at all.
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This is a travel week for us as we head back to Florida. The Professional Edition will not be published Monday evening 9/24, though Friday 9/28. Publication of all regular features will gradually resume over the weekend. See you then!
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The Fed pumped up the volume today pushing in $10 billion in overnight repos while only $3 billion were expiring. That brought the 5 day net add to a whopping $1.25 billion. Woo. I’m underwhelmed. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free...
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Readers will recall the Bank of England’s Meryvn King proclaiming that financial bail outs would not be forthcoming as they simply encouraged moral hazard behavior. However, with a bank run on Northern Rock well underway, the BoE was forced to both eat their words and lose their credibility with a rescue package. Now comes...
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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The central banks and their buddies issued more double talk on moral hazard recently, in spite of rate cuts and acceptance of questionable collateral.
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My summary answer to this question is “no”. The debate spurring my remarks here, which is presently raging in the Fed-skeptic/hard money camp, has splintered into the “austere Fed” vs. “profligate Fed” sub-camps. There are assumed to be important practical ramifications of the answer to this question regarding investing, trading, and...
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After the fireworks of the last week a number of readers have asked me a general question about “grading” the Fed and other central banks, and also about the effects of the latest move. I would divide the impact of central banks like the Fed into two categories. One are their actual operational actions, and...
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The charts show the status of 21 large cap bellwether stocks in a representative sampling of leading industry groups. The charts include 13-week cycle centered moving average projections. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you...
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The market backed up toward Wednesday’s high with little conviction Friday, but there’s not yet any sign of an important top developing, and price projections continue to point higher. The question is whether the market is preparing itself for a massive breakout through the July highs. Click here to download complete report...
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Sentiment towards gold has gone thru the roof, as you’d expect given what has transpired. A poll from a gold site, SwissAmerica, asks visitors where gold will be at the end of 2007: $700, $725, $750, $800, $850. Funny that it doesn’t even give an option for lower prices, considering that gold has closed...
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The fantasy Fed liquidity surge continues to not happen. While the media and the pundits continue to bray about the gazillions the Fed has pumped into the market over the past month, once again today, they stood pat, doing the exactly the same amount of weekend repos as were expiring. The net add...
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Lee Adler has made the September 12 podcast available in its entire as a freebie. It’s still timely. This extraordinary rant from Ron Paul stands on it’s own as he reams Bernanke a new one about his inflationary, bail out, moral hazard policy of favoring Wall Street while destroying the money of anybody who dares...
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The HUI FCS signal remains on a BUY for precious metals with our GDX long position now up 21% in less than three weeks!  It is encouraging to still see bearishness and outright denigration of gold as it finally surges to a new high once again. An uptrend in all time frames is the type of nasty behavior I happen to like most...
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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The market grunted on Thursday. Was it just a healthy pullback, or the beginning of something more sinister? A couple of the sectors that had the biggest breakouts on the heels of Tuesday’s Fed action reversed their breakouts to fall back below the top line of the base patterns. Unless they recover immediately that’s...
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The Fed came face to face with a $27.75 billion repo rollover and didn’t flinch, replacing it all and adding another $1.25 billion to bring the 5 day net to a $6 billion add. That and the $18 billion in Treasury debt paydowns settling today didn’t help the stock market but short term...
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One look at the chart of “Program Trading as a Pct of Weekly NYSE Volume” gives you a clue as to what is happening. The Basket Trade Boyz—the ETFs and the hedgies who love them—have represented an increasing share of market volume for the past eight years. At the top in 2000, program trading...
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New Lee Adler - Russ Winter podcast is available. A few news snippets of note. China decides to deal with their inflationary spiral with price controls on services and goods the government controls. This type of strategy is often employed in corrupt, crony capitalist systems to steal for the benefit of hacks and parasites....
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Latest cycle conditions and projections for the US Dollar Index and 10 Year Treasury Yield. Click links to download report in pdf format. (WSE Pro subscribers only). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund....
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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The market put a little more ammo in the bull quiver, not only holding on to Tuesday’s spectacular gain, but extending it. However, while there’s nary a sell signal to be seen anywhere (except for very long term indicators which can lead by many months), the market really hasn’t done anything. It’s still in...
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Fed funds traded at the new target of 4.75% and the Fed didn’t need to add reserves to keep it there. In open market operations today, the Fed added $9.75 billion in overnight repos against the same in expirations, leaving the 5 day net at a drain of $12.25 billion. So much for the...
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Lee Adler and Russ Winter discuss fictitious capital, the implications of capital flows from the Commercial Paper market, and the market’s misunderstanding of recent central bank actions. Not a subscriber? Check back here later for a free preview of today’s podcast. Subscribers only. Enter your login when prompted. Please wait for file to load. For...
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