Archive for July, 2007

Due to the birth of our first grandchild, I will not be posting Professional Edition reports, including the Fed Report, Market Update, and Precious Metals Report today Tuesday 7/31,  and tomorrow, Wednesday 8/1. I expect to resume publication on Thursday. Watch this page for updates. Thanks for your support! Lee
Read more »

Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
Read more »

With the opportunity coming Friday for more job lies and doctored numbers from the Ministry of Truth we continue to see evidence of what is happening in the real world. Online employment company Monster, who just a few months ago was ramped as high as 50 on takeover rumors, now reports what really went...
Read more »

The market rebounded from support levels, prompting a frenzy of bottom calls from the bulls and widespread trepidation among bears. One up day does not a bottom make, however. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time...
Read more »

The Fed pulled $0.5 billion from the market Monday by replacing $7.25 billion in expiring repos with $6.75 billion in overnight repos. The 5 day net dipped to a net add of $4.5 billion, well short of the huge $32 billion in new Treasury debt that settled Thursday and today. This week they start...
Read more »

On April 12 the NY Times published a glowing puff piece about John Devaney, a subprime mortgage hedge fund guy. Recently Devaney has run into a rough patch and was forced to suspend withdrawals from his hedge fund. The Times changed its tune over the weekend, reporting: You’ve gotta feel for him. John Devaney, United...
Read more »

If we get a bounce at my 1448-1453 target zone, the first upside resistance isn’t until 1490ish. On da chart, the 1450-1490 area is what I term a “free fly zone”. It is a range which saw a very fast move up in April and now a very fast move down in July. Chart zones...
Read more »

Not so very long ago, folks bought REITs for the income, not the appreciation. We might get back to that. An 8-10% return on a REIT fund sounds about right to me. In the olden daze, a 7-8% return was pretty standard and a 10-12% return was not uncommon. And this was for U.S....
Read more »

The action in the REITs is an object lesson as to why you should follow the bouncing charts and not listen to ANALyst chatta. Back in February, I wrote on my blog that the REITs were likely building an important top and, when they broke, would likely be savaged. Going into 2007, in fact, I...
Read more »

Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
Read more »

The sign of big trouble that we have been looking for is upon us, the increase in the spreads between mortgage backed Agencies and government paper. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t...
Read more »

Someone posted a response to a blogpost of mine last week when I suggested the SPX was headed straight to 1450ish. It was at 1515 at the time. He cited girlebullzie Kenny-Boy Fisher and quoted a long passage from one of Fisher’s recent bear-baiting tomes. To wit: “Bet on the bearish talk being wrong. When people are...
Read more »

The girlebullz over at realmonkey.com have got their panties in a twist. Most of them are staying long and strong. One girlebully triumphantly said he was “massively long” going into the weekend. The general view is that this selloff is related to the elimination of the downtick rule and that the shorts are running the...
Read more »

When the history of this era is written, perhaps more will come to light as to who exactly bought junk securities at inflated prices. Of course my theory holds that so called official buyers have played the major role in these activities and have long since abandoned the prudent man rule. In fact given...
Read more »

The stock market put on another spectacular fireworks display on Friday. Bears enjoyed the show. Bulls covered their eyes and ears, but refused to lower the lifeboats to board the women and children. As usual when the market breaks, the advice from most pundits was “not to panic” and “remain calm”. They equate selling...
Read more »

While the final results won’t be tallied until Monday morning, it looks like the LDP (Shinzo Abe’s party) is out in Japan. As the linked article points out, Abe’s top priorities were basically the projection of Japanese power globally, and more nationalism at home.
Read more »

Stock market action last week illustrates that not only are a bunch of Wil E Coyotes hanging out to dry on the Minsky Moment, but other investors have had a hair trigger reaction to the sudden downward volatility. Frankly they just aren’t used to it after having been long conditioned by regular “in the...
Read more »

For the past couple of months, I’ve posted that the SPX would probably have trouble negotiating the old 2000 highs and would likely need to come back down to re-test, at minimum, the technical top from February at 1448-1453. With the SPX closing at 1458 today, it has now dropped almost 100 points and is...
Read more »

The Dow may now be at the top of the 36 year cycle band Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that...
Read more »

Interesting how the patterns on the four major fraudexes are so different (SPX, NAZZ, RUT, INDU). Rusty is by far the weakest, thanks to heavy weighting in small finaglers and consumer discretionary. The SPX is the second weakest, also thanks to heavy finagler weighting as well as the spectre of 7-year resistance at 1550+. Yesterday,...
Read more »

In yesterday’s Fed report, I erroneously reported a total of 14 billion in repos added on the day. The total was $19 billion. The net add was $6.25 billion not $1.25 billion. The Fed did an extra repo yesterday that I missed. The extra repo suggests that the Fed was in fact reacting to...
Read more »

We came into yesterday with 15 shorts and one long on the Professional Edition chart pick list. When all was said and done, it was a pretty good day.
Read more »

Well Fargo just bags nonprime wholesale lending (that’s distinct from subprime and would include Alt A) and the pink slips fly. NEW YORK, July 26 (Reuters) - Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Thursday it will close its nonprime wholesale lending business, which processes and funds loans for third-party brokers, citing...
Read more »

Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
Read more »

On Tuesday when our cycle based stock screens spit out 60 concurrent 13 week and 6 month cycle sell signals, and zero buys, it was the most lopsided performance I had seen since I had first devised the screens in August of 2005. Today was even worse. Click here to download complete report...
Read more »

Here’s an updated look at that corp junk bond fund I’ve been following (SHIAX). The waterfall continues and no bounce at all. Down to 6.55 today, undercutting the lows from 2004, 2005 and 2006. Next stop is the 2003 low at 6.45. RSI on the daily is an astounding 6.24. RSI on the weekly now...
Read more »

One of the most important sectors to watch in here are the borkers. Here’s the current setup in the IAI, the borker-dealer etf. This etf also includes some of the big exchanges like CME, NYX, etc. Note that it fell straight to the Mar07 low today at around 51. That is also the vicinity of the...
Read more »

Amazing how many folks are citing historical statistics about new lows and “90% down days” and so forth and calling this an epic crash. Puh-leeze. One guy wrote that we’ve only seen eight times in the past 20 years when conditions were like today and all were big buying opps. This may be another one. But...
Read more »

Listen to a new podcast with Lee.
Read more »

The big directional divergence between stock prices and the direction of the Fed and FCB indicators since March might be a huge warning signal that the market had been running on fumes, piling leverage upon leverage without the base liquidity to back it up. Eventually the market reached the breaking point. I suspect that without a...
Read more »