Archive for February, 2007

The market rebounded a bit on Wednesday, and some short term cycle indications suggest that at least a dead cat bounce may be under way. But intermediate indicators continue to look broken, and the stock screens are posting the most negative numbers we have seen since I began tracking this data in August of...
Read more »

I’m not sure the coverage of yesterday’s contretemps can get any more inane. I listened to today’s ANALysis on NPR’s Newshour with Jim Lehrer. There was the usual hand-wringing, then a lot of reassurance. They mostly discussed Shanghai and its “record-breaking, one-day decline”. There seemed to be some consensus that not all was well in...
Read more »

The Fed did two repos. That’s unusual for a Wednesday but not surprising given the combined negatives of a massive wave of Treasury settlements over the next 3 days, and yesterday’s market meltdown. The Fed added a net of $9.25 billion to the liquidity pool. It pumped in $10 billion in overnight repos and...
Read more »

Borkers (financial middlemen involved in the business of borking their customers) have been well-correlated to SPX tops since 2004. That is not as true of the broader finagler indices (BKX, SPF, XLF). Not every sector looks intermediate term broken, though that may come in time. But the borkers definitely look broken and headed lower. If...
Read more »

A quick perusal of the usual suspects (in the mainstream financial infomercial media) leads to the conclusion: Yesterday was a technical glitch, panic-driven, mostly due to short sellers, and that today is a huge buying opportunity.One monkey even invoked Warren “Which Way to the” Buffett: “This is exactly the opportunity billionaire Warren Buffett spoke of...
Read more »

The charts show the status of 22 large cap bellwether stocks in a representative sampling of leading industry groups. The charts include 13-week cycle centered moving average projections (or 6-7 week if the 13 week cycle projection is not available). WMT, MSFT, and GE, now included in the review. These projections are meant to be...
Read more »

First off I can’t help but offer some advise to Riskloves: please fasten your seat belts. My sweet wild ass guess is that at some point in the next day or two, the Pig Men will muster up all their stock buy back fire power, and rumor machines, and engage in an intense market support...
Read more »

Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
Read more »

Shock and awe. The signs of a top that I discussed in last night’s report and over the weekend in the long term update gave no hint that that the market would roll over this hard, this quickly. The market simply broke. It suddenly ceased to behave in the manner in which it has...
Read more »

The Fed pulled a net of $1.5 billion out of the liquidity pool on Tuesday, even as it faces a huge wave of Treasury supply. It pumped in $8 billion in overnight repos against expirations of $9.5 billion. The Treasury raised $4 billion in new cash at Monday’s bill auctions, and today announced a...
Read more »

Will the sell off be a one day event? Liquidity thinks not.
Read more »

Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
Read more »

Bill Fleckenstein wrote a piece that asked a question which I’m sure you have asked, and that is why was the market so slow on the uptake on the obvious subprime bust, and why is it still ignoring obvious red flags in other areas including the consumer? His conclusion was that the market is...
Read more »

Cycle based stock screen data weakened across the board for the second day in a row. That’s different. The last few times all the measures weakened in one day, the market bottomed that day or the next. That could mean that this is an even bigger buying opportunity, or that the market is beginning...
Read more »

The Fed jammed a net of $5.88 billion including a $1.88 billion permanent purchase into the liquidity pool as it faces a wave of Treasury settlements this week. It pumped in another $9.5 billion in overnight repos along with the permanent, against expirations of $5.5 billion. The Treasury starts out with a request for...
Read more »

I want to share with you an exchange that took place this morning on Capitalstool.com’s message board, The Stool Pigeons Wire, about the TXU leveraged buyout. There’s a lot more truth to these observations than you will ever see in the mainstream financial infomercial media.
Read more »

The charts show the status of 22 large cap bellwether stocks in a representative sampling of leading industry groups. The charts include 13-week cycle centered moving average projections (or 6-7 week if the 13 week cycle projection is not available). WMT, MSFT, and GE, now included in the review. These projections are meant to be...
Read more »

Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
Read more »

I spotted an item by Jack Crooks that echoes my points on the Yen carry trade, with his conclusion being the scenario (direct intervention) I proposed in my last podcast. The other influence for a Yen rally would be very poor economic data from the US, and specifically the February jobs report released March...
Read more »

Latest cycle conditions and projections for the US Dollar Index and 10 Year Treasury Yield. Click links to download report in pdf format. (WSE Pro subscribers only). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that...
Read more »

There’s a rumored LBO of DOW today for 37% premium. DOW is the 2nd biggest weight in SPM/XLB (Materials sector.) Though the Materials sector is wildly extended and at ATHs, DOW has actually been a laggard and is trading 20% below its 2005 high. An LBO (should it occur) would no doubt jack the SPM/XLB...
Read more »

All of the talk lately on our message boards and blogs (See Lee Wheeler on the Mark) about Martin Armstrong’s 8.6 year cycle top being due Monday February 26 got me to thinking about super long term cycles. They are not something I normally give much thought to, because even if they do exist,...
Read more »

The precious metals certainly put in an exciting performance this week. The pick up in volatility along with price appreciation was a welcome sign anticipated in my last post.  The FCS signals  continue on buy status for gold, silver, and the mining stocks. The current GDX long position is now up 7.6% and the GLD long trade is up 10%  The first chart shows...
Read more »

An Armstrong Cycle high is due this week. Some may call it voodoo, but his analysis certainly proves otherwise. Others may question the validity of his exactitude with specific cycle dates and phases. That’s fair. Not all of his dates have meant much…at the moment. But the general gist of his theories makes a...
Read more »

As the subprime market comes unraveled we are hearing more and more about collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). CDOs represent the true dark matter of Ponzi finance. In effect these take the junior tranches of mortgage backed pools, and creates a new security. In turn this daisy chain offers another layer of collateral that backs...
Read more »

Stock screen data weakened across the board for the first time since February 12. In case you’re wondering, that marked a short term low to be followed by a 5 day rally. The last time it happened before that was January 25. The market made a short term low on the 26th and rallied...
Read more »

Last week, I mentioned that the SPX Materials sector (SPM) looked significantly overbought and quite risky in terms of adding new positions based upon the BPI index, the neg divs on the daily chart, as well as the magnitude of the current rally leg. As mentioned, the Materials sector has been a market leader: the...
Read more »

The Fed drained a net of $1.25 billion on Friday. Meanwhile this week the Treasury raised $28.7 billion in new cash in the 4, 13, and 26 week bills, and 2 and 5 year note auctions. Steve Northwood estimates that that number will triple in the next week, which should bring more pressure to...
Read more »

SMH broke above the declining trendline from Oct. Its now up against minor resistance between 35.77 and 35.97. A move above 35.97-36.00 should result in a very fast move to 37.74 or so. That’s five percent higher. That would bring it back to the May 11 breakdown level. My guess is that it would represent...
Read more »

When the crooks want to crank the semis, they look to KLIC-KLAC. It’s the biggest weight (by far) in the SOX. The top two weights in the SOX are KLAC (10.79%) and SNDK (8%). The SOX is price-weighted (hello, Sow Jones!). So it is subject to mucho manip. KLAC is ramping right to major resistance...
Read more »