Archive for December, 2006

Not much changed in terms of the overall picture on Friday, so I will mostly repeat what I said in Thursday’s intro, along with updating the details. I want to wish you and yours the happiest of New Years. Have fun, and stay safe! The market is closed on Tuesday for President Ford’s funeral....
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Latest cycle conditions and projections for the US Dollar Index and 10 Year Treasury Yield. Click links to download report in pdf format. (WSE Pro subscribers only). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that...
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New foreclosure data for November is out, California in particular is fading fast. In addition, California home sales were down 22.2% y-o-y during November. They are starting to face easier comparisons. The Unsold Inventory Index rose to 7.4 months, up from October’s 7.2 and the year earlier period’s 3.6 months. IRVINE, CA - RealtyTrac™ released...
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My mother-in-law, who is 74 and lives in Quebec, was on the way home from a bus tour of the western US when she suffered a burst aortic aneurysm near Battle Creek, MI. She was rushed to Battle Creek Hospital. They told us to prepare for the worst, that it was, in essence hopeless....
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FCBs were in buying panic mode this week, as their annualized monthly rate of accumulation of US Government and GSE securities rose past the 35% level. This is significant. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you...
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“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. - Joseph Goebbels Increasingly as government releases become all but worthless,...
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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The market will decide whether to re-accelerate to the upside or break the uptrend and begin the first serious correction in six months, as it heads into the new year. It will signal that decision by either breaking the trend channel that has contained it for the last 6 months, or beginning to separate...
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The “Nadsaq 100″ and its bullwithers — Option Backdaters Inc., Patent Infringement Corp., ClickFraud Associates, StolenGoodsFencing Ltd., NegativeNetassetValue.con, and ScrewTheOriginalKMholders Co.
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The Fed is in the midst of making its final push to the top of the 5% growth channel for 2006. In the end, their pattern for this year’s holiday season varied on slightly from previous years. The end result was the same—a massive 30 day add to the liquidity pool that managed to...
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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I track liquidity, but it has nothing to do with economic fundamentals. I track newly created liquidity as it is flowing into markets, which is the primary action of liquidity. Liquidity is created. It flows into and between markets, and when on those rare occasions it is destroyed, it disappears via the market....
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The “correction” had barely started when 13 day and 4 week cycles turned back up. Once again, 13 week cycle sell signals were meaningless, as the simplest of technical indicators, the trendline from the July lows, remained inviolate. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk...
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The Fed did $10 billion in overnight repos against $12.75 billion in expirations, thereby draining $2.75 billion from the liquidity pool on Wednesday. The 5 day net is still a huge positive, as the Fed closes out the year on its customary holiday binge. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional...
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Latest cycle conditions and projections for the US Dollar Index and 10 Year Treasury Yield. Click links to download report in pdf format. (WSE Pro subscribers only). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that...
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One of the stunners I have pointed to of late is the enormous pick up in foreign central bank (FCB) purchases of US securities, especially agencies. The question as to who is doing this and why is a challenging one. And the answer as you will see, is once again perverse. Other than custodial...
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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The charts show the status of 19 large cap bellwether stocks in a representative sampling of leading industry groups. The charts include 13-week cycle centered moving average projections (or 6-7 week if the 13 week cycle projection is not available). These projections are meant to be guides only. They are moving targets, and can change...
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Where have we seen this before? The market drops to a trendline, stops, and turns on a dime. Oh, that’s right! Every time since July. Will the result this time be any different? Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If,...
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for...
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The latest in misconceived bullish theories to come down the pike, was espoused in this week’s Barrons, by GaveKal. A centerpiece of their theory is the “net worth” of American “households”, derived from the Federal Reserve Z1 report. In 3Q, 2006 the Fed reported that US households held $67.1 trillion in assets against liabilities...
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Barrons this week devotes their entire cover story to GaveKal (the Gave father/son analcysts) and their thesis of the U.S. “platform economy”. The Gaves believe that U.S. multinats are poised on the precipice of massive profiteering (even more than now) as they apply advanced R&D, technology and superior financial engineering while outsourcing all the dirty...
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Merry Christmas! The bears are having a little taste of the turkey today, and it looks like they may be celebrating the New Year as well. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If within that time, you don’t find the information...
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After reading the cover story in Barron’s this week—the one where they predict we are entering “an age of unprecedented U.S. prosperity”—I thought to myself, “Well, that’s pretty dang bullish right there.” It also dawned on me that Barron’s has been pretty dang bullish all year, more than usual. I wanted to see if it...
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First off I wish my readers a Merry Christmas and Happy New Years in the traditional sense. What do I mean by traditional sense? I mean enjoy the holiday trappings in the old fashion way, go Christmas choiring, visit with the family, eat turkey, enjoy a nice tree. And that’s about all you’ll get...
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Looks like someone wants to make sure TRF (Templeton Russia Fund) is on their books come year-end. The closed-end fund is up 38% in the past few weeks. It is now trading at nearly a 30% premium to NAV and it just made a new high above the May high. Its composition is 83%...
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GDX (gold miners etf) came down to obvious support at the 200dayMA (38.37) and bounced right where it was supposed to. The actual low was 38.31. GDX has spent most of the year b/w 33-40, with a couple of forays down towards 32 and a few forays above 40.A break of 38 would be bearish....
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Another sentiment poll comes in today– bullish, of course, for 2007. Money manglers appear to be unanimous, or nearly so, that 2007 will look a lot like 2006…and 2005…and 2004.Few are anticipating a barnburner year, but most expect the usual 7-10% gains for the marquee fraudexes in 2007. That’s nothing new. It’s pretty much...
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Sad news to report. Billy Miller’s streak is over. The Leggbreaker Mason money mangler has beaten the Spooz 15 years running. But he came a-cropper this year. His Leggbreaker Mason Value Trust Fund is only up 4.6% in 2006 while the SPX has returned over 15% (incl div). That’s over a 10% underperformance. Miller’s overweighting...
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One of the maladjustments that occurs in Bubble economies where Riskloves and speculators lead the “buy everything” charge are distortions in inventories and prices. In this case, the cause of high prices often ends up in large measure being speculative and are set at the margin by Riskloves. This in turn gives real economy...
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